Climate Outcome NZ
  • Climate Outcome. Home page.
  • Latest posts & news
  • Temperature
  • Precipitation changes in a warming world.
  • Increased flood damage in a warming world.
  • Drought
  • Wind
  • El Nino Southern Ocilation. ENSO.
  • Sea Level
  • Polar melting
  • Arctic sea ice + weather.
  • West Antarctica
  • Ocean Acidity
  • Plant Die Back. Animal Migration.
  • Climate threats
  • Streams a vital resource.
  • Clean energy alternatives.
  • Climate Change in the Bay of Islands
  • The Author. Bob Bingham.
  • Satellite accuracy.
  • Reference sites

Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

Back to home page.

El Nino drought.

26/10/2015

5 Comments

 
Picture
We are in the middle of a strong El Nino which is currently more apparent in the Northern hemisphere, but will shortly becoming apparent here in New Zealand and it would be foolhardy not to take precautions.

The classic outcome from an El Nino event is a colder period in the spring and drought in the summer so I contacted Brett Mullan, Chief scientist with NIWA to ask him for some advice. He very kindly sent me his PowerPoint presentation from a talk that he and Gregor Macara of NIWA gave to Farmers on the South island to warn them of the impending problems and this is a very shortened version of their presentation.
Picture
The results of the last three El Ninos show different levels of drought in various parts of the country but the overall prediction from this very strong El Nino is that we will have a severe drought. As the graphic shows  we are already very short of rain and the moisture content of the soil is already low we are in a very vulnerable position.
Picture
The graphic shows how the country fared in the 1972/3 El Nino drought and the current event is of similar strength or even stronger.

Climate change has changed the pattern of wind over New Zealand over the last fifty years so that we are getting a higher proportion of westerly winds and, as it is the Easterly’s that bring us the rain, we are already getting a higher incidence of drought.
Picture

​Despite the forecast for drought the other problem with an El Nino is that the warmer water will make a cyclone more likely and the Northern Pacific has had a very busy cyclone season and we will most probably suffer the same fate. Cyclones are very unpredictable so whether we get hit is in the lap of the gods but just because a drought is forecast it does not reduce the likelihood of a cyclone and they are extremely damaging due to flooding and soil erosion.
Farmers and gardeners in particular need to be aware that we may have severe drought after Christmas and take necessary precautions to preserve plants and stock.

5 Comments

More Solar panels

23/10/2015

4 Comments

 
Picture
The cold winter meant we needed a heat pump and this put up our electricity bill to $450 for the first time for two years. Financially it is better to not pay for electricity if you have money in the bank earning interest. To earn $450 in interest at 3% requires $15,000 of capital  and the extra panels only cost $3000.
By not having the annual expenditure of $450 it is equivalent to earning 15% on the money invested in the panels. I'm just waiting for the price of second hand electric cars to come down and I will be doing the same thing with my petrol bill.

4 Comments

El Nino catastrophe.

10/10/2015

0 Comments

 
Picture
The El Nino warming of the Pacific ocean is predicted to continue for some months yet and this is NOAA's forecast of the sea temperatures. Coral bleaching has already been observed but this amount of heat will have many other bad effects around the world.

0 Comments

    Bob Bingham 

    Occasional blog posts on topical news items concerning the climate.  Please click the RSS feed to receive updates.

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    November 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    May 2021
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    September 2019
    December 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    September 2017
    June 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    September 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    Clean Water
    Climate Change.
    CO2 Levels
    El Nino
    Floods
    Methane
    Ocean Acidity
    Pine Island Galacier
    Sea Level Rise
    Soil Loss
    Storms

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly