Climate Outcome NZ
  • Climate Outcome. Home page.
  • Latest posts & news
  • Temperature
  • Precipitation changes in a warming world.
  • Increased flood damage in a warming world.
  • Drought
  • Wind
  • El Nino Southern Ocilation. ENSO.
  • Sea Level
  • Polar melting
  • Arctic sea ice + weather.
  • West Antarctica
  • Ocean Acidity
  • Plant Die Back. Animal Migration.
  • Climate threats
  • Streams a vital resource.
  • Clean energy alternatives.
  • Climate Change in the Bay of Islands
  • The Author. Bob Bingham.
  • Satellite accuracy.
  • Reference sites

Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

Back to home page.

Sea level rise. Adding the totals.

3/4/2016

8 Comments

 
Picture
There are so many reports coming out now about sea level rise that I am getting confused about the totals.

Picture
If we start with the IPCC Fifth report which only deals with thermal expansion, they have a range of scenarios, where only the worst case is valid, because we have already exceeding it, and that comes to 900 mm by the end of the century and about 500 mm by 2050.

We next have the report in Nature ‘Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise by Robert DeConto’ where his research shows that the rate of ice loss will contribute one metre by 2100.
This only deals with Antarctica's contribution. 

There is an excellent presentation by Eric Rignot of NASA at the American Geophysical Union where he summarises the accelerating rates of all the big glacial regions but hesitates to come to a real estimate of the totals for the end of the century but explains a very dire situation.
And lastly we have James Hansen who uses his vast experience to point to conclusions about a nonlinear collapse of the big ice sheets and the consequent pulse in sea level rise which could be as high as four metres this century. 
Eric Rignot said that trying to model the rate of collapse of the ice shelves is so complicated that by the time it is done it will be much too late. In fact, he says that the current situation is unstoppable.
Michael Man one of the most eminent climate scientists said that he might quibble about some of Jim Hansen’s research but the conclusions were probably correct.
New Zealand’s government is still using the IPCC mid-range scenario of about 700 mm by 2100 even though it does not include melting glaciers and ice shelves and we have long passed any hope of restricting sea levels to those optimistic level. 
Picture
The NZ Climate Commissioner, Jan Wright is pointing out the folly of not facing the facts and planning for the future, but even she is using very conservative figures of one metre sea level rise.

We expect a government to look at the countries future and use the available facts to plan for the safest outcome, but there is a deafening silence or outright denial, that there is any problem at all.
We can’t change what is happening to the climate but we can plan our infrastructure to minimise the worst of the effects and it start by recognising the gravity of the situation. Here is a summary of some NZ infrastructure losses.
8 Comments
Bob Bristow
13/4/2016 09:26:41 pm

I am pleased to hear our Local Authority LGNZ (the peak body representing New Zealand's 78 local, regional and unitary authorities) is taking notice and developing a new climate change position statement focusing on important mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hopefully our National government will get on board in the not too distant future. We do not have too much time to plan and act.


LGNZ President Lawrence Yule says New Zealand has much at stake and much to gain by adopting strong leadership on climate change.

“Climate change and sea level rise are increasingly important factors in policy making for local government. Developing and implementing ambitious action plans to support resilience within our local communities is a key goal for local government,” says Mr Yule.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1604/S00219/local-government-strengthens-climate-change-policy-response.htm

Reply
Bob Bristow
13/4/2016 09:33:22 pm

And for any who still doubt the power of CO2 and methane as greenhouse gases which prevent heat escaping to space, this work in Nature Climate Change underlines the role our industrial revolution has had.


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

"Global sea-level rise since the 1970s has been predominantly driven by greenhouse gas emissions and not natural climate variability, a study suggests.

Over the last 100 years, sea levels have been rising much faster than over previous millennia.

Now, scientists have modelled the cumulative forces driving observed sea-level rise in the modern era.

Details of the work are published in Nature Climate Change.

"The influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols - the human component, due to the burning of fossil fuels principally - is small in the beginning of the 20th century, only about 15%," says Dr John Church, a sea-level rise expert at CSIRO, the Australian federal research agency.

"But after 1970 it's the dominant factor, contributing to about 70% of the rise from 1970 up to present day."

"Natural internal climate variability, while it affects sea-level on short periods, has very little impact on the trend during the 20th century."



http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36029753

Reply
Bob Bristow
14/4/2016 09:18:25 pm

and more news of New Zealand taking action today . . .

NZ Planners’ Think-Tank On Climate Change Impacts

“Good planning and forethought is going to be so important to New Zealand to maintaining a healthy economy and a sustainable future. Regardless of the causes of climate change we must address and plan for this future. We must sustain our environment and grow our economy so we preserve sustainable choices for our children and grandchildren.”

Let's hope action taken measures up to those weighty words . .

http://livenews.co.nz/2016/04/14/nz-planners-think-tank-on-climate-change-impacts/

Reply
Bob Bingham
17/4/2016 03:59:09 pm

Jan Wright the Climate Commissioner of NZ has started a report on sea level rise and infrastructure loss in NZ but there are also two reports from our universities that also dealing with the problem. I picked them up from Hot Topic. http://hot-topic.co.nz/

Reply
Bob Bristow
19/4/2016 07:02:35 pm

Thanks for the link to "hot-topic" and I see from the Herald the report has been released, our Climate Change minister is away in New York to ratifying the Paris Agreement.I'm slightly hopeful that some progress will be made.

Reply
Bob Bingham
19/4/2016 08:52:06 pm

Paula Bennett is a friend on Facebook so I sent a message saying that I hoped she had some realistic emission saving proposals and not just a briefcase full of carbon credits.

Reply
Bob Bristow
20/4/2016 12:23:33 pm

Off topic, sometime ago you posted an interesting piece on the topic of ocean currents. The speeds and time it takes for currents to move around isn't too clearly known. I found a summary of recent Princeton research of interest in this field (so thought I would share on your forum).

Ocean currents push phytoplankton — and pollution — around the globe faster than thought.

"The billions of single-celled marine organisms known as phytoplankton can drift from one region of the world's oceans to almost any other place on the globe in less than a decade, Princeton University researchers have found.

Unfortunately, the same principle can apply to plastic debris, radioactive particles and virtually any other man-made flotsam and jetsam that litter our seas, the researchers found. Pollution can thus become a problem far from where it originated within just a few years."

http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S46/10/76A60/index.xml?section=topstories

Reply
Andy Wilkins
1/6/2016 02:48:42 am

You might be hopelessly wrong:
It seems the latest research has found that the seas around the Antarctic are going to remain cold for a very long time. Perhaps that imminent collapse is not so imminent?
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2731.html

I quote:
" The Southern Ocean’s water comes from such great depths, and from sources that are so distant, that it will take centuries before the water reaching the surface has experienced modern global warming."

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Bob Bingham 

    Occasional blog posts on topical news items concerning the climate.  Please click the RSS feed to receive updates.

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    November 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    May 2021
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    September 2019
    December 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    September 2017
    June 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    September 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    Clean Water
    Climate Change.
    CO2 Levels
    El Nino
    Floods
    Methane
    Ocean Acidity
    Pine Island Galacier
    Sea Level Rise
    Soil Loss
    Storms

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly