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A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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The harmful Ozone hole in the Southern hemisphere and not in the North.

29/6/2017

8 Comments

 
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I asked a scientist friend of mine who works on the UN agreement to limit the use of CFC’s gasses, which are used in refrigerators and cause the hole in the ozone layer.   ‘Why is it that the industrial Northern hemisphere countries emit the CFC’s and we, in the Southern Ocean have the hole in the ozone layer and its lack of protection exposes us to cancer from sunburn’.
This is a very shortened version of her explanation.

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CFC gas is released in the Northern hemisphere and because the gas is light it rises into the upper atmosphere with warm air and, in the strong circulating upper atmosphere winds, it is carried down to the equator where it crosses to the Southern hemisphere. 

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The CFC’s have a chemical reaction that kills ozone when exposed to extreme cold and UV light. Antarctica is different to the North Pole because it is very high and as a result it is very cold. In the spring when the sun returns to the South Pole, with the combination of the UV light and extreme cold the CFC’s react with the Ozone and destroy it. 

​The circular motion of the Southern Ocean winds holds the ozone depleted hole in the atmosphere in position and stops it being repaired by fresh ozone, which means that there is a single large region that has no ozone in the upper atmosphere.
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​The North pole does have depleted ozone regions but they are smaller and split into two or three patches.
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The very fact that the countries of the world came together to reach an agreement to stop using CFC's and use a less harmful gas was incredible. Then, when they realised that the CFC replacement was also a harmful greenhouse gas, they came to a new agreement and adopted a gas that had almost zero greenhouse gas emissions.
There is some hope that we can collectivly get CO2, methane and other greenhouse gasses under control and avoid the very worse of climate change.
8 Comments
Dennis JANICEK link
2/7/2017 11:10:51 am

I am afraid that the world is going backwards in science.  

Erdoğan of Türkiye (religious right) banned Evolution from Schools complaining that students are too stupid to understand it:

Turkey Moves Further From Secularism in Dropping Evolution From, Schools, voanews.com, 01-Jul-17

https://www.voanews.com/a/turkey-dropping-evolution-education-in-schools/3924113.html

Scott Pruitt (head of US EPA) will implement a program that  will use “red team, blue team” exercises to conduct an “at-length evaluation of U.S. climate science,” the official said, referring to a concept developed by the military to identify vulnerabilities in field operations.

EPA Chief Scott Pruitt Wants to Enlist a “Red Team” to Sow Doubts About Climate Change, slate.com, 30-Jun-17
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/06/30/scott_pruitt_wants_to_use_a_red_team_to_sow_doubts_about_climate_change.html

This is drop-dead stupid. The scientific method results in a predictive statistical model that is the combination of contributing causes plus variation and noise.  A “red team, blue team” exercise generates ideas for a test and fix program — NOT a conclusion. Since the IPCC model already matches climate for the past 700,000 years, we can only make insignificant improvements using mathematical tools like Principal Component Analysis (PCA).  The physicist, Richard Mueller of UC-Berkley, already did this. The use of a “red team, blue team” exercise is not a mathematical tool.

Richard Muller: I Was wrong on Climate Change
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sme8WQ4Wb5w

US Congress defunded IRS investigating the political activities of Churches. This means that charitable money donated to a church can be used for politics. The religious right has been science denier from the beginning of time.  When Pope Gregory, the Calendar Maker, hired a Roman Catholic priest, Copernicus, to develop an accurate calendar, the religious right outlawed the sun-centric calculation method and the telescope and declared Copernicus a heretical . But they did not declare Pope Gregory a heretic because he was a pope and holy guy. T

BILL TARGETS LAW AIMED AT KEEPING POLITICS OUT OF CHURCHES
http://www.apnewsarchive.com/2017/House-GOP-seeks-to-deny-money-to-IRS-for-enforcing-law-that-prohibits-churches-from-full-on-political-activities/id-f9260260089b4a45b209b3eed0f20

I think we were lucky to have these CFC’s outlawed before the world went into science denial.  I hate to think that the next improvement in the environment will await the next fashion and trend in public opinion.

Reply
Bob Bristow
3/7/2017 07:59:13 pm

In case you find it of interest I attach an article from the U.A.E's English paper regarding Evolution also being dropped from state school biology, although the article states it is to make room for teachings regarding advances in DNA, it does suggest a religious conflict. Non state schools and higher education facilities are free to teach Darwin however. I understand that in the U.S believers in creationism are more likely to doubt AGW, not sure that is true in the UAE where AGW is generally accepted. On a personal basis I was never taught Darwin's theory of evolution, but I have no problem understanding what the industrial revolution has created in our world. I spent a large proportion of my life working in the UAE so feel I can make a statement regarding the country.

regards
Bob

Quote and link follows:

"According to Abdul Qader Eisa, Senior Supervisor of Biology at the Curriculum Development Centre in the Ministry of Education, the evolution theory is included in the curriculum for Grade 12 pupils in public schools but will be removed for the next academic year.
Public schools have only three classes per week in biology and the new curriculum cover demands the need to include a wide array of new "crucial topics such as the human systems, and recent advances in DNA technologies."

http://gulfnews.com/news/uae/culture/debating-the-origin-of-life-1.161641

Reply
Bob Bingham
7/7/2017 04:44:48 pm

The world situation is not as bad as it might appear if you are based in the USA. World wide extreme religion is failing as people become more educated and have a broader view. The USA is going backwords, its true, and the rest of the world is looking on in amazement at the ignorance of the president and his advisers. The problem for the USA and the UK is that a small number of people control the media and believe that they can manipulate the people. They have done well recently but I suspect that the people will fight back in the next few years and return to a more secular and social way of government.

Reply
Bob Bristow
3/7/2017 03:17:05 pm

Thinking back to the Montreal protocol which went into effect on January 1st 1989, it was amazing how quickly industry pulled together and phased out the regulated substances. It does give us hope that we can do the same for CO2 and other GHG's. However it is not all good on the effort to recover our ozone defenses, there are still unregulated destroyers being released, hold off with the champagne, we are not quite there yet.

Ozone recovery may be delayed by unregulated chemicals
Recent increases in an unregulated ozone-depleting substance, could delay recovery of Antarctic ozone levels by 5-30 years, depending on emissions scenarios.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170627134524.htm

Reply
Bob Bingham
7/7/2017 04:33:28 pm

Hello Bob. The agreement banning CFC's gives us hope and then the replacements to CFC's have also been banned so the world can act together when it matters. Even the USA pulling out of the Paris agreement will not divert the worlds efforts. In fact I think that it has highlighted the problem and made many countries realise the seriousness of the problem and try harder.

Reply
Dennis JANICEK link
20/7/2017 04:43:40 pm

1. Evolution.

_a. The Bible says God spoke the Universe into existence:

Genesis 1:11 Then God said, “Let the land produce vegetation: seed-bearing plants and trees on the land that bear fruit with seed in it, according to their various kinds.” And it was so.

So God doesn't create anything but says let it be and it is as in case of secular evolution.

_b. God loves his creation and his creatures. Jesus says that to cause the tree to fruit, you must bury manure around its roots. Seventy-one percent of American youth are not citizen-ready, because if they cannot qualify for the US Army then one wonders what else are not qualified for. The US has not been manuring the roots of the trees.

2. Creationism.

_a. Once you have creationism, humans are free moral agents and to bear fruit, the human must pick himself up by his bootstraps.

_b. There is no freewill nor free moral agents in the Bible:

Romans 7:15 I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do I do not do, but what I hate I do. 16 And if I do what I do not want to do, I agree that the law is good. 17 As it is, it is no longer I myself who do it, but it is sin living in me. 
https://www.bibleserver.com/index.php?ref=Romans7,15-17&trl_desig=NIV

_c. So this is why 71% youths are not citizen-ready because Americans are waiting for them to pick themselves up by the bootstraps. As a consequence, China passed up the USA in GDP in purchasing power parity according to the CIA World Book. In the future, it will pass the USA in conventional money.

3. If God created the Universe, it is clear that only human sin can anger God and God would cause global warming. However, if God spoke the world into existence then the Earth cannot be polluted with CO2 because it must sustain life as happens in secular evolution.

4. So when a student told Socrates that moral men should beat immoral men, Socrates replied that if you beat a horse you destroy the horse's nature. Beating a horse is clumsy punishment, but a horse trainer trains the horse with stingy punishment. So if you believe in Creationism then you believe that man is a free moral agent and that his behavior
can be improved by clumsy punishment. However, if you believe in evolution, human are like sheep in the Good Shepherd parable, that is creatures of God like animals and need to be trained with stingy punishment and no human will bear fruit without manure.

5. If you believe in Creationism then God created the Universe perfect but was destroyed by caveman named Adam, who ate an apple. You also believe that God created global warming due to his anger over human sins.

Reply
Dennis JANICEK link
24/7/2017 05:29:46 am

#global_warming #KüreselIsınma #rainfall #Yağış

Another #CO2 source, tropical peat bogs is increasing emmissions due to drying.

Redrawing the world’s peat maps
http://blog.ciat.cgiar.org/redrawing-the-worlds-peat-maps/

Reply
Bob Bingham
26/7/2017 07:35:49 am

Thanks for the link Dennis. As the world warms threats come from many unexpected places.

Reply



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