http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/blog.html

Antarctic sea ice minimum.

22/12/2016

For those people who have not caught up with the fact that both Poles are losing ice very quickly here is a graphic of the Antarctic ice loss. After years of increases we have had a massive loss of ice. The huge reversal in trend has caught everyone out and is extremely worrying especialy as big ice shelves have massive cracke in them and the glaciers behind them are speeding thier way to the sea.
We should get a second acceleration in sea level rise in a few short years and there is no way of reversing the trend.

8 Comments

Dennis Janicek link

8/1/2017 08:00:55 pm

**Solid Reality**

«We are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and

Twisting Facts: «Then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time:

Solid Reality: «The only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.»
– George Orwell

The instincts of human beings cause binary thinking. One exception breaks the rule. The rule is impossible because there is an exception. (The rule maybe probable but this is not binary; «probability» is not binary.) See:

At least 20 die in cold snap across Europe
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/9/254637/World/International/At-least--die-in-cold-snap-across-Europe.aspx

Look how can you say, the climate is warming, when

[1] «Ten of the latest victims of the cold perished in Poland where sub-freezing conditions remain with minus 14 degrees Celsius (seven degrees Fahrenheit) forecast on Saturday.»

[2] Once more, read «With more than 60,000 mainly Syrian refugees on its territory, Greece has moved many migrants to prefabricated houses and heated tents.»

[3] Also, «The coldest temperature in Europe so far this winter was recorded on Friday in the Swiss village of La Brevine at minus 29.9 degrees.»

So if I found three exceptions, all the rest is just bull shit, so there is no global warming. Further, the are more than one contributing cause, how can you say say the key driving factor is CO2? These other contributing causes are exceptions. With all the exceptions, all the rest is just bull shit, so there is no global warming. Furthermore, the climate contains variations, so it contains noise (noise or inaccuracy is one exception to the rule of predictability.

To use probability, you have to use statical models. These all use probability and the can be multiple contributing causes to form the effect. The noise is used to calculate a safety margin to provide statistical confidence. The exceptions and noise are naturally included in the safety margin. However, the models are not binary.

So the binary instincts do not allow us to know global warming.

Bob Bristow

9/1/2017 09:09:48 am

Dennis - you are way off topic, the topic is low sea ice both in the North and Southern hemisphere. There is nothing Orwellian about this observation, satellite readings can be checked at the U.S based NSIDC organization or the Danish DMI organization. Yes - in winter it can get cold, I remember an American Senator demonstrated this by holding up a snowball in his hand, This is exactly what your post is doing.

Climate Change does not necessarily mean warming, for example the Gulf Stream brings warm tropical waters (from around the West Indies) to South West Ireland and England. The winter temperature is degrees above what it would be without the warming current and they are are to grow grapes and some tropical fruits. However the melting Arctic ice is slowing the current down and there is a danger it could stall. This would make winters very harsh (and cold) in the South West of Ireland and England (more akin to Siberia).

There is more to the global climate than variability, sun intensity, green house gases, aerosols, cloud cover, and albedo, Oceans store and transport an enormous amount of heat.

Low sea ice extent continues in both poles

Sea ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic set record low extents every day in December, continuing the pattern that began in November. Warm atmospheric conditions persisted over the Arctic Ocean, notably in the far northern Atlantic and the northern Bering Sea. Air temperatures near the Antarctic sea ice edge were near average. For the year 2016, sea ice extent in both polar regions was at levels well below what is typical of the past several decades.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Dennis Janicek link

9/1/2017 02:36:04 pm

*Orwellian Global Warming*

The name of the site is «Climate Outcome» and not «Climate Science». The topic includes: «We should get a second acceleration in sea level rise in a few short years and there is no way of reversing the trend.» The sea level rise issue and «there is no way of reversing the trend» is definitely a «solid reality» and is Orwellian.

The graph is: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/12/monthly_ice_11_SH-350x270.png

from:

Low sea ice extent continues in both poles, 05-Jan-17
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/category/analysis/

which talks about Arctic sea ice loss linked to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

There is more to the global climate than variability, sun intensity, green house gases, aerosols, cloud cover, and albedo. Oceans store and transport an enormous amount of heat. However, CO2 is the key driving factor, it is what is leading warming with a rapid rate.

The graph in

*Human Fingerprints on the Atmosphere*
https://theconversation.com/forty-years-of-measuring-the-worlds-cleanest-air-reveals-human-fingerprints-on-the-atmosphere-68489

shows the isotopic ratio, «δ¹³C», which is the normalized ratio of carbon 13 (¹³C) to carbon 12 (¹²C). Fossil fuels are depleted in ¹³C relative to the atmospheric carbon isotopes due to the «Suess Effect», because they were originally formed from living organisms. The graph shows the lowering of ¹³C due to burning fossil fuels. Non-man-made sources would have a different isotopic signature. So the «carbon fee and dividend» will help the situation.

Don Trump says that low-CO2 renewable energy alternatives will «hurt the US economy» then this is binary reasoning. The idea of multiple contributing causes creating the effect is against the rule: «the end does not justify the means». To consider multiple contributing causes to save the world from CO2 is to use a bad means (hurting the US economy) to achieve a good end (to save the world from CO2). Binary reasoning say it must be «all [logical one] or nothing [logical zero]». We can all feel that the end does not justify the means. It is our instincts toward «binary reasoning».

The way to fix this is the «carbon fee and dividend»:

Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative of a Carbon Fee and Dividend
http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2015/11/11/environment-and-development-challenges-the-imperative-of-a-carbon-fee-and-dividend/

It will collect a steadily rising carbon fee from the fossil fuel companies. That money should go to the public in the form of a dividend, not to special interests or the government. This revenue-neutral approach – no money to the government – stimulates the economy. It spurs energy innovation, modernizes our energy infrastructure, creates millions of jobs and increases the GNP. Economic studies show that after 10 years it reduces CO2 emissions 30% and more than 50% after 20 years.

However, Anthony «Van» Jones, American commentator, vehemently denounced the concept and vowed to «sink» it. He demanded to get a tax and give the funds to his favorite social justice program. A carbon tax will hit the consumer (most of them poor and even some black Americans [Note 1]) and not those with the ability to pay unless there is a dividend to the consumer. The carbon tax was repealed in Australia because the consumer could not afford to pay the tax. This the result of «binary thinking» (all or nothing); either we do all good or nothing at all.

Jim Hansen: Transcript of We Hold Truths to be Self-Evident
http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2016/12/09/1314/

So the binary instincts do not allow us to know global warming. We cannot use a bad means (hurting the US economy) to achieve a good end (to save the world from CO2). The human mind due to «binary thinking» is not made for philosophy. So the bible advocates education to learn statistical models three thousand years ago:

Proverbs 27:17 Iron sharpeneth iron; so a man sharpeneth the countenance of his friend.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/KJV.NIV/Proverbs27,17

[Note 1] The number of people on welfare is largely white due to the fact that 70% of Americans are white. The stereotype is that they are all black («all or nothing»). So Van Jones thinks that social justice programs for blacks help the «poor and disenfranchised». This is «binary thinking»: «all or nothing». However, the «poor and disenfranchised» are largely white and reducing taxes on consumption helps both black and white «poor and disenfranchised» to spend money on what helps their families. The same situation is in Australia, but the blacks are not African.

Dennis Janicek link

9/1/2017 07:07:48 pm

Sorry, now I realize that you took my «binary thinking» argument seriously. So you feel the power of binary reasoning and proves the instinctive power of binary reasoning.

I saw:

_ >Yes - in winter it can get cold, I remember an American
_ >Senator demonstrated this by holding up a snowball in
_ >his hand. This is exactly what your post is doing.

So I thought that you were a Global Warming skeptic, because you said that Gulf Stream slowdown would make winters very harsh (and cold) in the South West of Ireland and England (more akin to Siberia). So I thought that saying that the British Isles would become like Siberia was «one exception breaks the rule» and were using «binary thinking». So is the strength of my instinctive urges.

The human mind due to «binary thinking» is not made for philosophy. We wonder about mass murder from religious politics (based on «binary thinking»: «all or nothing»: «all bad versus nothing bad»). Then wonder why Don Trump cannot get climatology. After all the last president, the Nobel-winning Barack Obama knew Global Warming, why should not the succeeding presidents know? Why don't both houses are Republican know it? Nobel-winners do not use «binary thinking» but can do «statistical model».

Bob Bingham

10/1/2017 09:30:09 am

Thanks for that Bob. Very well put.

Bob Bingham

10/1/2017 09:39:06 am

Dennis you make a lot of points about the philosophy of thinking behind climate change and frankly these are beyond me. I only look at the latest science reports and try to work out how it will effect people. There is a lot of politics behind the economics of climate change and roughly this means that the reduction of CO2 emissions, which is essential to our future is not compatible with continuing the burning of fossil fuels. The oil and coal companies know this and have spent millions on spreading misinformation. This has lost us thirty vital years and well may prove decisive in our future.

Dennis Janicek link

10/1/2017 01:50:52 pm

Mr Bingham,

In your comment (Bob Bingham, 06 Jun 14) on «El Nino on its way. Is it a big one?, 31 May 2014 », you implied that «The political situation in New Zealand is not like the USA as climate change is generally accepted as happening».

I feet shame for my country, USA. The political situation in New Zealand is just like that in the USA. «Climate Change» is accepted by a Nobel Prize Winner, who happened to be US President Barack Obama. Both houses of Congress are Republican and do not accept it. US oil and coal companies do not accept it. Now, we have Don Trump, who is skeptical about Global Warming. See:

I told my students to be optimistic about the climate – after Trump, I feel an utter fraud, 15 Nov 16
https://theconversation.com/i-told-my-students-to-be-optimistic-about-the-climate-after-trump-i-feel-an-utter-fraud-68774

Do not compare New Zealand politicians to a single Nobel-winning president in the US. It will be a long time before either New Zealand or USA have another Nobel-winning leader. Feeling the shame, I sought to see how these people think. Like Bob Bristow's American Senator holding a snowball in his hand to disapprove «Global Warming» in his 09-Jan-17 comment on «Antarctic sea ice minimum, 22-Dec-17», it shows that there are no smart politicians except for the best. The snowball is the «One exception that breaks the rule» («binary thinking»).

The oil and coal companies have spent millions on spreading misinformation, because they are skeptical – perhaps they wait for «Deus ex machina». But God (Deus) does not come from a machine (ex machina).

That falling tail on the graph of Antarctic Sea Ice has certainly scared me. It is like a nature walk in the Apocalypse, but our smart politicians are not protecting us. This is the first time that science has speculated on the end times along with religious people. See below for a description of the end times in Isaiah, Amos and Matthew.

===================================

Drought:
Isaiah 24:4 The earth dries up and withers, the world languishes and withers, the heavens languish with the earth.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/NIV.KJV/Isaiah24

Too many refugees due to events in the climate:
Isaiah 24:18 And it shall come to pass, that he who fleeth from the ‹noise› of the fear shall fall into the ‹pit›; and he that cometh up out of the midst of the ‹pit› shall be taken in the ‹snare›: for the windows from on high are open, and the foundations of the earth do shake.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/KJV.NIV/Isaiah24,18

Wackos get a hold of a nuclear weapons due to economics and climate:
Amos 5:18 Woe unto you that desire the day of the LORD! to what end is it for you? the day of the LORD is ‹darkness›, and not ‹light›. 19 As if a man did flee from a ‹lion›, and a ‹bear› met him; or went into the house, and leaned his hand on the wall, and a ‹serpent› bit him. 20 Shall not the day of the LORD be darkness, and not light? even very dark, and no brightness in it?
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/KJV.NIV/Amos5,18-20

Wackos get a hold of a nuclear weapons due to economics and climate:
Matthew 24:22 And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/KJV.NIV/Matthew24

Bob Bingham

11/1/2017 05:44:46 pm

hello Dennis. My comments about the situation in NZ were mainly aimed at the media and public acceptance of climate change. Politically we pay lipo service in the we accept the theory but do very little in practical terms. However I am confident that people all over the world are becoming more strident in their demands to see action from their governments and that includes the USA. There is a massive increase in renewable energy and electric transport and the whole scene is changing very quickly. So, despite the occasional setback, like Trump, the world is moving towards a better climate.

Bob Bingham Blog page.

Antarctic sea ice minimum.

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