http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/blog.html

Temperature results from 2015

24/1/2016

Now that 2015 is complete and the records of the climate are being made available, it gives us the opportunity to see where we are today and where we are heading. The above chart is from the Japan Meteorology Agency and shows how the surface temperature of the planet has taken a dramatic upward swing.

The second chart, from NASA, shows how the temperature has varied around the world with much greater heat in the Arctic, Russia and Canada. The big worry is the cold patch in the North Atlantic, reportedly caused by Greenland melting. This is exactly what was forecast by Al Gore in 'An Inconvenient Truth' all those years ago and has been consistently ridiculed by deniers. The Gulf Stream is reported as slowing and weather patterns in the USA, the UK and Europe are far from normal.

The final chart, by a team of climate researchers from Switzerland, Australia and the UK led by Seneviratne, shows how a 2C average temperature increase is cooler on the oceans and much warmer on the land masses, especially as you get closer to the Arctic. In the colour scale the sea is 2C, most land masses are 3C, Canada and Russia are 4C and the Arctic 6C.
Those farmers in Texas who think that they are going to move to new lands in the North are going to be bitterly disappointed because the extreme temperature change will make farming impossible. There is not enough detail to show the drought around the Mediterranean which is already causing civil unrest in that region.
All in all its a very stark scenario of the worst outcome that has been predicted for years.

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Oils volatile price.

22/1/2016

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Oil is a diminishing resource with a volatile price and we need to be using much more of our abundant renewable energy for our transport system. The current price of $30 per barrel will not be good news in the long term as the world does not like volatility with the important resource.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/19/why-oil-under-30-per-barrel-is-a-major-problem/

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2C limit will mean 3/4C for the land

22/1/2016

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As we live and farm on the land an average global temperature rise of 2 C can mean a local temperature of 3 C or more on the land. This would be the end of farming as we know it.
Colours on the chart indicate 2 C on the sea and most land is
3 C or 4 C and the Arctic is 6 C.
http://m.phys.org/news/2016-01-degrees.html

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Climate change in your lifetime.

21/1/2016

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The warming of the planet is a slow moving event and it has taken one hundred years to gain 1 C but the loss of sea ice in the Arctic is happening very quickly and is accelerating and, importantly,for the man in the street in the Northern hemisphere, it is affecting the weather.
The summer ice has declined 40% so far and forecasters are looking at an ice free summer by 2030 but we will not need to wait that long for really marked climate changes to be seen.
The UK has seen massive flooding events in 2012/3 and again in 2015. The USA has had dramatic swings of weather from being exceptionally warm to very cold.
As the ice reaches 50% decline the strong link between violent extreme weather events and ice loss will become more apparent and it is these damaging weather events that disrupt people lives and the economy that make climate change real to the man in the street.
This NOAA report explains the current state of ice loss.
It is no longer something that hurts polar bears or flood some poor people in remote parts of the world but reaches right into big cities and wealthy economies.

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Trees in a 3 C warmer world.

12/1/2016

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Climate change is a very wide ranging subject and how it will affect our lives at a personal level is sometimes hard to deduce. To illustrate what might happen locally we could look at trees and see how they will fare and from that we can deduce other environmental changes.
To state the obvious, trees are not mobile, and because they have been growing in the same locality in a wood for thousands of years with a stable climate they are not very tolerant to change.
The evidence of this is easily observed from where you live. If you look at the trees in your locality and take note of the types and then travel North or South to where the temperature is 3C warmer or cooler, you will notice that the trees will be very different. This indicates that the trees grow where they have the climatic conditions to suit them and if you change the climate by 3C they will be under considerable stress even if moisture and nutrients remain the same.

Another way of observing trees natural temperature range is by changing the elevation. Temperature goes down by 7C for every 1000 meters of altitude and so if you go up a hill 500 meters the temperature will drop 3.5C and this might be easier than driving 1000 Kilometers North or South.
The green/blue patches on the temperature map roughly equate to the mountainous regions.
This paragraph from New Zealand research by D. O. BERGIN and M. O. KIMBERLEY. into improving the success of collecting and planting the seeds of trees and the value of getting the climatic conditions right for survival, including altitude.
Totara growth. http://newzealandecology.org/nzje/1911.pdf

“ It follows that large-scale planting for ecological purposes, such as re-vegetation of former Totara forest areas, should use seed of local origin and similar altitude in order to obtain trees with the same genetic integrity and which are suited to the local climatic conditions”.

The blue on the rainfall map shows how the rainfall in Northland varies in detail but roughly equates to more rainfall on high ground.

Humans have been burning fossil fuels in huge amounts over the last hundred years and have moved the CO2 content of the atmosphere from its normal range of 180 ppm in an ice age to 280 ppm in a warm period to over 400 ppm today. This increase in CO2, which is a major greenhouse gas, has already caused the global temperature to rise by 1C and there is debate about whether we can contain the rise below 2C or even 3C. This is affecting the normal circulation of atmospheric winds around the globe and means that in some areas there is increasing drought and in some areas increasing rain and you can be certain that where you live will not remain the same.

To get an idea of what the climate will be like in a world with 400 ppm of CO2 paleontologists have been researching the conditions when the world last had CO2 levels at that level, which was in the Pliocene era between 3 and 5 million years ago.
What they have found is that the temperature was 3C warmer and the sea levels were 12 meters higher. Sea level is not an issue here so we will concentrate on the 3C temperature rise.
The first thing that springs to mind is that the trees of the Pliocene period were not the trees we have today and even if some of them are very similar they would have been growing in a completely different region of the world.

For a tree to grow healthily it needs a number of elements to be kept constant. The tree needs the temperature to remain within its narrow range of tolerance, it needs the right amount of water and for it to be available at the right time of year, the right amount of sunshine and it needs the right soil conditions to suit its needs.
Trees like CO2 and so they can be expected to grow faster if they have more of it but it has been found that the other elements, particularly water are more important. Research at the University of Western Sidney, where they are conducting many experiments on the effects of Increased CO2 and also changing rainfall patterns on trees shows that water supplies are the dominant factor in growth.
Explanation of the many types of research here.

In this photograph of the UWS research facility the elevated part of the tree line is where the trees have been given extra water.

A danger with elevated CO2 in the atmosphere is that when it rains the natural ph of the water is slightly acidic and as our civilisation continues to burn fossil fuels we are increasing the acidity of the rain water.

A tree has a huge root system which is as important to it as its branches and it relies on microbes in the soil to be healthy. Additional acidity can be fatal and although acid rain is associated with sulphur from burning coal everything that affects the trees natural state can put it under stress and be detrimental to its health.

Most of the damage to our forests up to now have been caused by heat and drought and what appears to happen is that the tree becomes stressed by lack of water and then, in its weakened state, it becomes overwhelmed by pathogens, which could be beetles or a fungal disease and the tree dies. In addition to this, when a woodland has lots of dead trees, and then there is a forest fire, the fire that erupts is huge, as it has a lot of fuel, and this finishes the whole area off.
Prof Steve Running does an excellent talk on his work on the spruce trees in Montana. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLL7t3tF7z8
Modern satellites use cameras in the infra-red light sector to observe the health of forests around the globe in ways that cannot be done on the ground and the results are becoming increasingly alarming.

Forests are dying all round the world from the boreal forests in the North to the Amazon and Congo on the equator and there are a multiple of causes from drought, to infestation, to acidic soil, to introduced pests, to logging and land clearance and it is going to be a very different world for future generations without the trees and woodlands we are used to.

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Worse to come in UK floods

1/1/2016

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There is a conveyor belt of deep depressions heading for the UK and to make things worse a high pressure system sitting over Russia is going to block them so that they keep dumping rain and can't move away.
I dont think that this part of climate change was forecast.

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Bob Bingham Blog page.

Temperature results from 2015

Oils volatile price.

2C limit will mean 3/4C for the land

Climate change in your lifetime.

Trees in a 3 C warmer world.

Worse to come in UK floods

Bob Bingham

Archives

Categories

Bob Bingham Blog page.

Temperature results from 2015

Oils volatile price.﻿

2C limit will mean 3/4C for the land﻿

Climate change in your lifetime.

Trees in a 3 C warmer world.

Worse to come in UK floods

Bob Bingham

Archives

Categories

Oils volatile price.

2C limit will mean 3/4C for the land