Climate Change Research at the University of Western Sydney.
Trees are adapted to the conditions where they grow and are sensitive to change, if the climate in which they are located changes their is a strong chance that they may not survive,
A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.
Climate Change Research at the University of Western Sydney. There are many claims that because plants absorb CO2 the world would benefit from increased CO2 in the atmosphere. The University of Western Sydney has been conducting research into the behaviour of plants with enhanced CO2 and there are many research projects under-way at any one time, I was shown round the University by Assoc. Prof Paul Holford and my summary of the different experiments are as follows. A greenhouse controlled environment growing cotton with enhanced or ambient CO2; plentiful water or drought; with and without extra nutrients; and temperature control. In the six chambers of the greenhouse the plants are grown with combinations of enhanced CO2, water and nutrients so that every combination can be tested. A quick summary of the results was that the cotton plants respond well to enhanced CO2 but unless they get more water and nutrients they cannot take advantage of the boost. If water or nutrients are restricted then the plants will not grow no matter how much CO2 they get. A similar experiment called Whole of Tree was conducted in another part of the University. Using six large large greenhouses that would house a whole tree in a controlled environment, the trees could have, in different greenhouses, CO2 at 600 ppm or at ambient level of 400 ppm, combined with plentiful water or natural rainfall levels and they could have enhanced nutrients. A tree can be planted and grown for eighteen months before it becomes too large. During this time sensors can be attached to the tree, including the roots, and the growth and behaviour monitored and there could be as many as sixty experiments being carried out at once. The result was much the same as with the cotton in that CO2 does enhance growth but if the additional water and nutrients are not supplied to fulfil the plants requirements the tree cannot take advantage of the stimulant. The most expensive experiment was the Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) project where a natural area of woodland was surrounded by towers that blew CO2 out to raise the level to 600 ppm. This project is intended to find out what would happen when trees, which are adapted to live in a world of CO2 at 280 ppm, live in a world where the CO2 had reached 600 ppm. This is a ten year experiment which is halfway through its term and the first papers are only just being prepared now. Early results show that the trees grew quickly initially but the control plants in a natural environment eventually caught up and became the same size. The biggest and longest running research at UWS Involved growing trees in blocks in a natural environment but with the ability to provide additional water or nutrients in a series of combinations. The most striking result that I could see was that the addition of water stimulated growth above everything. You can see the larger trees in the centre. It must be remembered that this is Australia which is fairly dry but the trees are adapted to this climate. The other striking result was that putting nutrient on the ground, but without the benefit of additional water, stimulated the grass to grow but the trees did not benefit. Trees are adapted to the conditions where they grow and are sensitive to change, if the climate in which they are located changes their is a strong chance that they may not survive,
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Why does NZ need renewable energy for transport? Oil is a fantastic high energy and very portable fuel and currently it’s very cheap, in fact it has almost always been cheap and plentiful and we have built a good life with it. So what’s the problem? Oil is a diminishing resource with volatile price and we rely on it almost completely for our vital transport and industrial requirements and it may not be with us forever. We have two problems with oil and one is price and the other is availability. Volatility of price can cause huge fluctuations in economic performance for any economy so not having any alternatives poses a serious risk. Currently the price is low but an analysis of the cause can help predict the next rise. The first point to understand is that there is almost no storage in the supply chain and so the system is very vulnerable to market forces. The world uses about 93 million barrels of oil a day and in volume this is 15 cubic kilometres or 450 cubic kilometres a month. This is a huge volume and there is just not that amount of storage in the world. For such a vital resource even a month’s supply is not much, so the system relies on a steady supply from oil wells to the vehicle in an uninterrupted stream. The price of oil has recently slumped and we have to ask ourselves why such a valuable and scarce resource has suddenly become very cheap. In previous years there was a ‘swing producer’ who had an abundance of supply and if the price went too low could reduce output and the price would then stabilise upwards or, if the price went too high could increase output and it would then stabilise at a lower price level and help the world economy. In recent times the USA is the biggest consumer who needs a steady supply at a low price and Saudi Arabia is the main supplier and this symbiotic relationship has worked well. Saudi has umbrella military support and a ready supply of military weapons from the USA and the USA has oil. The problem came when the USA developed fracking and was able to access huge amounts of oil and gas and increased its output enormously and this began to over supply the market. The swing produce, Saudi, was expected to reduce output to stabilise the price but naturally felt that their main customer, the USA, should continue to take supplies or cut production and therefore refused to cut output. Their rationale being that they had cheap oil and the USA had expensive fracking, short term oil. So these two big suppliers refused to cut production and the market has more oil it can use on a daily basis and this has caused a slump in prices. We might be enjoying it but how long will it last? Oil rigs and exploration are being cut to save money and they are not easily restarted. Today’s temporary cheap oil is just a hiccup along the way with a diminishing resource, as we passed peak oil in 2008 and that was the end of cheap oil. We are now squeezing the sponge to extract the last drops of more expensive oil. So where does this leave New Zealand, which relies on cheap oil for its transport? The good news is that we have an abundant supply of renewable energy but the bad news is that we have no way of using it for transport. Our railways are in a bad state of repair and powered by oil and our trucks and cars are all powered by oil. So we are very vulnerable. Despite the availability of electric transport and a vast supply of cheap domestic electric energy New Zealand has made no attempt to make use of it for transport and it takes up to thirty years to upgrade railways and introduce electric lorries, buses and cars. We need to get started now. Today Climateoutcome finally had more than 1000 visits in a month. Thank you to all the readers, supporters and friends. The site is intended to bring awareness to the increasing threat of climate change and to bridge the gap between detailed science and those who just want to know the outcome in a short, but reliable, informative way. It still amazes me that from New Zealand, at the bottom of the world, I get the latest science within minutes and communicate with people all over the globe. It really pleases me to get readers in China, Russia and even Greenland with lots of messages of support and very few denying trolls. Twitter @climateoutcome has been a great help as it is so quick and immediate. Thank you for your support. Bob Bingham. NZ. Can we expect 4 metres of sea level rise by 2050? In a recent ABC (Aus) Radio interview James Hansen, who is arguably the most prominent climate scientist in the world, said that attempting to limit the temperature to a rise of 2C was far too high and at this level we may expect sea levels to rise by “several metres” by mid-century. There is a huge gap between Hansen’s comments on sea level rise and the latest IPCC report, but the IPCC only report on what they can prove and they specifically said that there were aspects of the Antarctic concerning ice shelf disintegration and ice sheet thinning that were poorly understood and could not be reported on. There are still no reports that can model this rate of sea level rise so what are the components that draw Hansen to those conclusions, because he also stated “The ice sheets are losing mass faster and faster, with a doubling time of about 10 years”. If you take the existing rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm a year and double it every decade you get to a figure of around 1.7 metres rise which is still not “several metres” by mid-century. So what could it be? Here I think we are looking at the thinking of informed scientists who can see and know what is happening, but do not have the resources or the time for data sets to prove what is happening. Several things we do know and one is that the loss of ice mass is accelerating and as Hansen said the rate is doubling every decade. The second is that the ice shelves are thinning fast and as an example Pine Island ice shelf, which is still vast and hundreds of metres thick, is now in terminal decline. The cause of this is that the sea water around Antarctica has a temperature of minus 1.8C and will not melt the ice shelves but the deeper water, although very cold, is plus 2C and will melt ice rapidly. Water has a thermal conductivity rate about 20 times more than air so it is an important factor. The top of this deeper water used to be a 1000 metres below the surface but has been rising at 200 to 300 metres a decade and in places is now only 300 metres from the surface and this puts it just within reach of the bottom of the ice shelves. If there is a canyon in the sea bed this warmer water can get in under the ice shelf and start to melt the whole shelf. This is what is happening to Pine Island and also the Totten ice shelf. These vast ice shelves are held in place by their grip on the land and are holding back the glaciers from where their mass comes. When the ice shelf disappears the glacier starts to slip down the slope towards the sea like custard on a plum pudding and several are doing that already. With the effect of Global warming the earth’s temperature has raised 0.9C but this is an average of the whole planet and the poles are warming much faster than the average. In some places this is putting more snow on to the continent but around the edges and in West Antarctica in particular the warmer atmosphere is melting the ice from its surface. This has been thinning Larsen C ice shelf and it now has a big crack in it. Larsen A and B have already disintegrated so all eyes are on Larsen C to see what happens. These are the mechanisms which can cause a catastrophic collapse of Antarctica ice shelves and glaciers and much of it is has already started. Similar things are happening in Greenland.
The amount of water held in ice in West Antarctica is enough to raise sea levels worldwide by six metres, East Antarctica sixty metres and Greenland seven metres so the figures are vast but we only need one metre to cause so much infrastructure and farmland to be flooded that it will cause economic collapse of most countries including the USA, the UK, Holland, China, Bangladesh and many small island nations.. The major difference between petrol cars and an electric one is that the electric cars do not have nearly as many moving parts and do not need so much maintenance. No gear box, no pistons and sump, not even so much use of the brakes. It is more like a fridge or TV and can be delivered to your home for instant use without involving a dealer. With this simplicity in mind which electricity company is going to be the first one to put a car on the electricity bill? That's how the electricity companies helped introduce the early appliances into the home. Are we getting close to a breakthrough?New Zealand's problem is that, unlike most countries, we already do not burn much coal for electrical energy. This means that we do not have a simple quick fix to reduce our emissions as we only have transport left to clean up our performance. As New Zealand is now on the UN council we have to put up an honourable performance in the Paris talks later this year and can not sit at the back of of the room and dodge the issue. We have a massive abundance of clean renewable energy, an oil import of $5 billion a year and every car produces two tons of CO2 a year. This is all pointing in one direction and only needs a bit of help to make big savings. If the government converted as much of its transport fleet to electric and gave a bit of help with infrastructure and with imports of electric transport we would be on our way. |
Bob BinghamOccasional blog posts on topical news items concerning the climate. Please click the RSS feed to receive updates. Categories
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