The 2024 floods in Spain and storm Bert in the UK have highlighted how climate change is making storms considerably more extreme than they would normally be.
The obvious culprit would be that the planet has been at, or over, 1.5C warmer than the long-term average and probably warmer than the last 120 thousand years, but there are other factors at work that influence the weather in Europe.
In the last few years, a number of papers have been published that deal with the North Atlantic part of what is referred to as the Great Ocean Conveyor. This is a huge system circling the world, both on the surface and in the depths of the ocean and it distributes heat and nutrients around the globe.
The part of the Ocean Conveyor that is causing concern is the surface water that leaves the African coast, goes to the Gulf of Mexico and then passes between Florida and Cuba, up the East coast of the USA and then across the North Atlantic to Europe.
This current is in two parts of which the major one is the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Current (AMOC) and a smaller proportion is the Gulf Stream. The AMOC is a big wide current that reaches down 1000 metres and is the water that sinks into the deep when it reaches the Polar region, while the Gulf Stream spreads into a multitude of eddies and eventually sheds it heat to the atmosphere and the remnants head South down the Spanish coast.
A string of buoys has been measuring the Gulp Stream between Florida and Cuba and the current has reduced in speed by 4% in the last forty years.
The AMOC is measured by taking core samples from the seabed in the North Atlantic around Greenland, Iceland and Norway and this shows that the AMOC has reduced by 15% since the 1950’s.
Further evidence is the “cold blob’ or coller patch of the Atlantic just South of Greenland which indicates that the AMOC is not delivering as much warm water as it used to and the area is cooler. There is also the additional cold, fresh water flowing out of Greenland as the ice melts
The worrying part is that some recent research shows that, if the AMOC flow collapsed, it would cause a 40C drop in the temperature in Norway and a 5C drop in temperature in the UK.
Although scientists are looking for a tipping point that would collapse the system for centuries, a 14% drop in the conveying of warm water from the Equator to Europe must have a detrimental effect on today’s weather and causing major storms.
There are other aspects af the changing weather pattern such as the slowing polar vortex which causes changes in the flow of weather or causes storms to stall, in position, and either create a drought or excessive rain and floods in this highly populated region.
The obvious culprit would be that the planet has been at, or over, 1.5C warmer than the long-term average and probably warmer than the last 120 thousand years, but there are other factors at work that influence the weather in Europe.
In the last few years, a number of papers have been published that deal with the North Atlantic part of what is referred to as the Great Ocean Conveyor. This is a huge system circling the world, both on the surface and in the depths of the ocean and it distributes heat and nutrients around the globe.
The part of the Ocean Conveyor that is causing concern is the surface water that leaves the African coast, goes to the Gulf of Mexico and then passes between Florida and Cuba, up the East coast of the USA and then across the North Atlantic to Europe.
This current is in two parts of which the major one is the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Current (AMOC) and a smaller proportion is the Gulf Stream. The AMOC is a big wide current that reaches down 1000 metres and is the water that sinks into the deep when it reaches the Polar region, while the Gulf Stream spreads into a multitude of eddies and eventually sheds it heat to the atmosphere and the remnants head South down the Spanish coast.
A string of buoys has been measuring the Gulp Stream between Florida and Cuba and the current has reduced in speed by 4% in the last forty years.
The AMOC is measured by taking core samples from the seabed in the North Atlantic around Greenland, Iceland and Norway and this shows that the AMOC has reduced by 15% since the 1950’s.
Further evidence is the “cold blob’ or coller patch of the Atlantic just South of Greenland which indicates that the AMOC is not delivering as much warm water as it used to and the area is cooler. There is also the additional cold, fresh water flowing out of Greenland as the ice melts
The worrying part is that some recent research shows that, if the AMOC flow collapsed, it would cause a 40C drop in the temperature in Norway and a 5C drop in temperature in the UK.
Although scientists are looking for a tipping point that would collapse the system for centuries, a 14% drop in the conveying of warm water from the Equator to Europe must have a detrimental effect on today’s weather and causing major storms.
There are other aspects af the changing weather pattern such as the slowing polar vortex which causes changes in the flow of weather or causes storms to stall, in position, and either create a drought or excessive rain and floods in this highly populated region.
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