Information from NOAA and commented on by top USA climate scientist Kiwi Kevin Trenberth, indicate that we have a larger than normal El Nino event forming and this is a much shortened version of the forecast.
With the deployment of the Argo buoys in 2004 we now have much better information of what is happening in the oceans and it is easier to see when an El Nino is forming and to forecast its size and effect.
Of the classic early indicators we have recently had three big bursts of Westerly wind which blow in the reverse direction to the normal seasonal trade winds.
There has also been a 100mm (4") increase in sea level in the Eastern pacific as the sea is driven up by the wind and boosted by thermal expansion as it heats up.
There has also been a 100mm (4") increase in sea level in the Eastern pacific as the sea is driven up by the wind and boosted by thermal expansion as it heats up.
A more serious and certain indicator is the Kelvin wave which is a huge mass of warm water at a depth of 150 metres below the surface moving in an easterly direction towards Mexico and this water is 6C above normal.
During June there will be a more certain estimate of the El Niño’s size and it should start affecting our weather in December and peak in February. Classic changes to the weather would be increased hurricanes in the East Pacific around Hawaii and Tahiti with increased rains in Mexico and California, disruption of the monsoons in India and Africa and a hot and disrupted weather pattern all round the world.
In New Zealand we may have a drought.
During June there will be a more certain estimate of the El Niño’s size and it should start affecting our weather in December and peak in February. Classic changes to the weather would be increased hurricanes in the East Pacific around Hawaii and Tahiti with increased rains in Mexico and California, disruption of the monsoons in India and Africa and a hot and disrupted weather pattern all round the world.
In New Zealand we may have a drought.
From the NASA world temperature graph you can see that 1998 was an abnormally hot year which is why the deniers say we have not had any warming for seventeen years (2010 was actually the hottest year but in the deniers world facts get in the way of good misinformation) and if we get an El Nino of equivalent strength we should get a similar temperature spike.
With the number of people who die in these big events it is not a happy forecast.
With the number of people who die in these big events it is not a happy forecast.
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