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A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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El Nino Weather for New Zealand.

17/8/2015

5 Comments

 
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Weather and climate watchers will know by now that we are in a very strong El Nino year and will be wondering what this means for local weather.
In most regions of New Zealand this means an increase in Westerly winds and as most of us live and farm on the East coast and are in the rain shadow of the Westerly mountains this increases the chance of drought. 

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The increased Westerlies in a classic El Nino year are caused by the combination of low pressure systems travelling to the South of us and a high to the North of us. 

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However for those of us who live in the very Far North of the North Island we may get a different set of weather. In our case we project into the Pacific region and with increased heat in the ocean the Hadley cell could extend further South and give us warmer and moister weather.                                                             It also puts us further into the cyclone region so, we are exposed to a greater risk of storms. Tropical storms are a very hit or miss affair, they either hit you or miss you. but for us the risk will likely be higher this summer. 

5 Comments
Bob Bristow
15/8/2015 11:33:48 am

Thanks Bob for the information on how the El Nino may affect us in the land of the long white cloud.

I was reading an interesting piece from Dr. Trenberth in The Conversation a day ago. I've been following the PDO Index for some time now after reading his ideas on the influence to surface temperatures, and he talks of the El Nino - Positive PDO connection in this article I've attached.

http://theconversation.com/is-the-global-warming-hiatus-over-45995

Dr. Trenberth's latest paper (an abstract)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-08/aaft-icv081015.php

and interesting comment from Chris Mooney in the Washington Post...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/13/if-global-warming-really-did-pause-the-planet-seems-to-have-pressed-play-again/


Reply
Bob Bingham
16/8/2015 09:51:05 am

Thanks for the leads Bob. Kevin Trenberth is a Kiwi so he must be right. Lets hope that we can get through this El Nino without too many people dying. I am really worried about a big cyclone hitting the low, industrial lands of China as this could set back the Worlds economy.

Reply
Bob Bingham
18/8/2015 08:08:22 am

Thanks for the mention Kevin. Just as well we don't live in California.

Reply
Bob Bingham
26/8/2015 01:45:19 am

Hello Bob. You might be interested in this free course. I have just completed one on satellite observation of the earth and it was very good. https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/categories/nature-and-environment

Reply
Kevin Hester
18/8/2015 06:08:54 am

Added to my note on the El Nino, thank you Bob
https://www.facebook.com/notes/kevin-hester/el-nino-explained-in-24-minutes-highly-recommended/10204250241748904

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    Bob Bingham 

    Occasional blog posts on topical news items concerning the climate.  Please click the RSS feed to receive updates.

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