NASA has observed an increase in the strength of the trade winds in the Pacific at the equator which is often a precursor to an El Nino event and they have raised the likelihood of it happening to 50%. El Nino events bring a flood of warm water across the Pacific from the Philippines area towards the Americas and this upsets the weather pattern over half of the globe bringing floods to some areas and drought to others.
In a more stable La Nina situation trade winds blow from the Ecuador region of America out across the Pacific pulling up cool nutrient rich water from the deep and creating ideal fishing conditions.
This can be clearly seen in the Weather Undergound temperature chart with a cool (yellow) area close to the South American coast.
In a more stable La Nina situation trade winds blow from the Ecuador region of America out across the Pacific pulling up cool nutrient rich water from the deep and creating ideal fishing conditions.
This can be clearly seen in the Weather Undergound temperature chart with a cool (yellow) area close to the South American coast.
The cool water spills out across the Pacific, warming as it goes.
Sea levels are not even around the World, like in a bath, but can pile up due to winds or thermal expansion from increased heat. This illustration is from a different period but shows what it would look like.
The NASA Jason2 satellite shows that the strong trade winds are piling up warm water in the Western Pacific.With the extra strong trade winds blowing, the warm water builds up and heats and this will continue for some months until the trade winds fade and the warm water spills back across the Pacific in a classic El Nino situation.
This chart shows where the heat is concentrated currently in the Pacific and the arrow indicates the approximate location of the Marshall Islands,
In a separate news item it was reported that the Marshall islands were flooded by extra high king tides. The Marshall Island in common with many other Pacific islands are very low lying and when you only have one metre of altitude for much of your living area a few extra centimetres can be critical between having dry feet or seeing your shoes float away.
This is not the first time these islands have flooded as the picture from 2012 shows but it does illustrate how little margin there is for safety.
Sea level is currently rising at 3.16 mm a year globally http://climate.nasa.gov/ which to many of us is not much but if you only have 1000 mm total altitude a 500 mm sea-level rise would be critical ,then 31 mm every ten years is very serious and if you add to that extra strong trade winds to pile up the water and additional thermal expansion and you have a critical situation.
This is only a precursor for the main event and we will have to find homes for many Pacific islanders in the years ahead.
Sea level is currently rising at 3.16 mm a year globally http://climate.nasa.gov/ which to many of us is not much but if you only have 1000 mm total altitude a 500 mm sea-level rise would be critical ,then 31 mm every ten years is very serious and if you add to that extra strong trade winds to pile up the water and additional thermal expansion and you have a critical situation.
This is only a precursor for the main event and we will have to find homes for many Pacific islanders in the years ahead.
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