Recent research published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, by Franz Philip Tuchen of Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA shows how the Pacific Equatorial currents have increased over the last three decades.
Using records from satellites, drifting buoys and moored buoys the researchers found that the increased speed of the trade winds across the Pacific along the equator in a westerly direction, from the South American coast towards the Philippines, increased the near-surface current by 20% % and where it turns Northwards it has increased by 60% and the branch to the South by 20%. This near surface current extends down about 200 metres.
This increased wind speed drives the surface water towards an area in the West Pacific, between the Philippines and Australia, leading to weather events where the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and the increased heat of the sea can generate increased rainfall and more powerful storms.
There is no indication at the moment that this increased activity is having an effect on frequency of occurrence of the El Nino/La Nina although these are difficult to quantify due to their irregular pattern.
When this information is put together with research on Southern Ocean winds which have increased in speed by 40% over four decades, we can’t help but wonder what is in store for New Zealand as these big changes must have a significant effect on the storms that hit the country.
The country’s Southerly location makes us vulnerable to powerful Westerly storms, which are becoming more frequent, but the Southern Alps give protection to the more densely habitated farming areas on the South Island Canterbury plain.
The top of the Noth Island is vulnerable to tropical storms coming down from the Pacific and we have had some bad flood events on the North Island East coast, where the clockwise rotation of a low-pressure storm has driven excessive rain events into Hawks Bay and Auckland but so far we have avoided a full blown tropical cyclone giving us a direct hit.
The movement of atmospheric circulation and the combination of high and low pressure systems are extremely difficult to predict in a climate model but the overall circumstances can indicate likely risks. Changes in water temperatures and wind patterns can have profound effects in regions far away from the causes and monsoons on which millions of people depend for their annual rainfall
As the oceans warm, they make more heat available to power tropical storms and the shifts in warm zones can change wind patterns which can cause droughts and atmospheric rivers such as a string of rain bearing systems coming in a long line from the Queensland vicinity and collectively flood our North East coast.
These events have been more pronounced in California where they have caused extensive damage but we have experienced similar smaller events here and we don’t want them becoming stronger and more frequent.
here to edit.
Using records from satellites, drifting buoys and moored buoys the researchers found that the increased speed of the trade winds across the Pacific along the equator in a westerly direction, from the South American coast towards the Philippines, increased the near-surface current by 20% % and where it turns Northwards it has increased by 60% and the branch to the South by 20%. This near surface current extends down about 200 metres.
This increased wind speed drives the surface water towards an area in the West Pacific, between the Philippines and Australia, leading to weather events where the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and the increased heat of the sea can generate increased rainfall and more powerful storms.
There is no indication at the moment that this increased activity is having an effect on frequency of occurrence of the El Nino/La Nina although these are difficult to quantify due to their irregular pattern.
When this information is put together with research on Southern Ocean winds which have increased in speed by 40% over four decades, we can’t help but wonder what is in store for New Zealand as these big changes must have a significant effect on the storms that hit the country.
The country’s Southerly location makes us vulnerable to powerful Westerly storms, which are becoming more frequent, but the Southern Alps give protection to the more densely habitated farming areas on the South Island Canterbury plain.
The top of the Noth Island is vulnerable to tropical storms coming down from the Pacific and we have had some bad flood events on the North Island East coast, where the clockwise rotation of a low-pressure storm has driven excessive rain events into Hawks Bay and Auckland but so far we have avoided a full blown tropical cyclone giving us a direct hit.
The movement of atmospheric circulation and the combination of high and low pressure systems are extremely difficult to predict in a climate model but the overall circumstances can indicate likely risks. Changes in water temperatures and wind patterns can have profound effects in regions far away from the causes and monsoons on which millions of people depend for their annual rainfall
As the oceans warm, they make more heat available to power tropical storms and the shifts in warm zones can change wind patterns which can cause droughts and atmospheric rivers such as a string of rain bearing systems coming in a long line from the Queensland vicinity and collectively flood our North East coast.
These events have been more pronounced in California where they have caused extensive damage but we have experienced similar smaller events here and we don’t want them becoming stronger and more frequent.
here to edit.
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