Back in 2012 James Hansen wrote a paper in which he said that the aerosols in the atmosphere, which include soot from burning coal, sulphur from burning oil and dust from farming, was cooling the planet by as much as 1.5C. In other words the temperature has risen by 1.5C, caused by the 420 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, but if we did not have aerosols in the atmosphere the temperature would have risen by 3C. This is an alarming statement and often derided by climate scientists, but Hansen has been proven to be right before and knows more about our planet’s atmosphere than most people.
I know from experience in the UK, how aerosols from aircraft making contrails can cloud the sky with a white haze and reduce sunburn and yet when I come to New Zealand with its clean atmosphere, I burn in twenty minutes.
Hansen wrote another paper in which he predicted that the planned reduction in sulphur in the atmosphere from the laws forcing shipping to burn cleaner fuel from January 2020 would increase the temperature by 0.2C.
Independent of this, the temperature in 2023 reached 1.5c above preindustrial levels and 2024 will probably clear 1.6C. Initially this was attributed to the El Nino but the rise was too big and so scientists are looking for other causes.
A recent paper shows that low clouds in the Northern oceans have reduced in 2023 and 2024 and the lack of bright reflective clouds has caused the sun to warm the oceans.
Clouds are caused by moisture in the atmosphere and can coalesce around an aerosol of soot or sulphur and form a cloud droplet. For 200 years , as we burned copious quantities of coal and oil, we have benefited from increased cloud cover to keep the temperature down but now, as we clean up our polluting output, the sky is clearing, and we are beginning to experience the true effect of burning fossil fuels. This is what Hansen called the ‘Faustian bargain’ where, as we move to a cleaner energy, as we must, we experience the damage that we have already done.
Shipping is not the only cause of a cleaner atmosphere. The USA has reduced its reliance on electricity from burning coal from 51% to 10% in a decade, Europe is replacing coal, gas and oil as quickly as it can and the China has a massive amount of solar, hydro and wind energy and is cleaning up its cities very quickly and has already started to import less oil and coal.
New Zealand should be doing the same as we have a monthly oil bill of $1 billion dollars and if we concentrated on importing only electric cars busses and trucks we could halve that figure in five years which would save $6 billion a year.
I know from experience in the UK, how aerosols from aircraft making contrails can cloud the sky with a white haze and reduce sunburn and yet when I come to New Zealand with its clean atmosphere, I burn in twenty minutes.
Hansen wrote another paper in which he predicted that the planned reduction in sulphur in the atmosphere from the laws forcing shipping to burn cleaner fuel from January 2020 would increase the temperature by 0.2C.
Independent of this, the temperature in 2023 reached 1.5c above preindustrial levels and 2024 will probably clear 1.6C. Initially this was attributed to the El Nino but the rise was too big and so scientists are looking for other causes.
A recent paper shows that low clouds in the Northern oceans have reduced in 2023 and 2024 and the lack of bright reflective clouds has caused the sun to warm the oceans.
Clouds are caused by moisture in the atmosphere and can coalesce around an aerosol of soot or sulphur and form a cloud droplet. For 200 years , as we burned copious quantities of coal and oil, we have benefited from increased cloud cover to keep the temperature down but now, as we clean up our polluting output, the sky is clearing, and we are beginning to experience the true effect of burning fossil fuels. This is what Hansen called the ‘Faustian bargain’ where, as we move to a cleaner energy, as we must, we experience the damage that we have already done.
Shipping is not the only cause of a cleaner atmosphere. The USA has reduced its reliance on electricity from burning coal from 51% to 10% in a decade, Europe is replacing coal, gas and oil as quickly as it can and the China has a massive amount of solar, hydro and wind energy and is cleaning up its cities very quickly and has already started to import less oil and coal.
New Zealand should be doing the same as we have a monthly oil bill of $1 billion dollars and if we concentrated on importing only electric cars busses and trucks we could halve that figure in five years which would save $6 billion a year.
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