There are so many reports coming out now about sea level rise that I am getting confused about the totals.
If we start with the IPCC Fifth report which only deals with thermal expansion, they have a range of scenarios, where only the worst case is valid, because we have already exceeding it, and that comes to 900 mm by the end of the century and about 500 mm by 2050.
We next have the report in Nature ‘Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise by Robert DeConto’ where his research shows that the rate of ice loss will contribute one metre by 2100.
This only deals with Antarctica's contribution.
This only deals with Antarctica's contribution.
There is an excellent presentation by Eric Rignot of NASA at the American Geophysical Union where he summarises the accelerating rates of all the big glacial regions but hesitates to come to a real estimate of the totals for the end of the century but explains a very dire situation.
And lastly we have James Hansen who uses his vast experience to point to conclusions about a nonlinear collapse of the big ice sheets and the consequent pulse in sea level rise which could be as high as four metres this century.
Eric Rignot said that trying to model the rate of collapse of the ice shelves is so complicated that by the time it is done it will be much too late. In fact, he says that the current situation is unstoppable.
Michael Man one of the most eminent climate scientists said that he might quibble about some of Jim Hansen’s research but the conclusions were probably correct.
New Zealand’s government is still using the IPCC mid-range scenario of about 700 mm by 2100 even though it does not include melting glaciers and ice shelves and we have long passed any hope of restricting sea levels to those optimistic level.
Michael Man one of the most eminent climate scientists said that he might quibble about some of Jim Hansen’s research but the conclusions were probably correct.
New Zealand’s government is still using the IPCC mid-range scenario of about 700 mm by 2100 even though it does not include melting glaciers and ice shelves and we have long passed any hope of restricting sea levels to those optimistic level.
The NZ Climate Commissioner, Jan Wright is pointing out the folly of not facing the facts and planning for the future, but even she is using very conservative figures of one metre sea level rise.
We expect a government to look at the countries future and use the available facts to plan for the safest outcome, but there is a deafening silence or outright denial, that there is any problem at all.
We can’t change what is happening to the climate but we can plan our infrastructure to minimise the worst of the effects and it start by recognising the gravity of the situation. Here is a summary of some NZ infrastructure losses.
We can’t change what is happening to the climate but we can plan our infrastructure to minimise the worst of the effects and it start by recognising the gravity of the situation. Here is a summary of some NZ infrastructure losses.
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