What happens after the climate ‘pause’?

With 2014 being the hottest year on record and yet we are still in a ‘pause’ I thought that it would be a good idea to see if we are on track to match the IPCC predictions.

The two graphs above (Top NASA, Bottom Japan Meteorological Agency.) show the Worlds temperature since the Industrial revolution started and thermometers came into use. Both show that the Worlds atmospheric temperature has not been an even line and we are currently in the third recorded pause. The first pause was 1900 to 1925 and the second from 1942 to 1978. Approximately 25 years for the first one and 35 years for the second one. The pause we are in now is supposed to be from 1998, which was a very hot year, but a look at the graph would put it at about 2003. If the World’s climate follows a previous pattern and holds steady for say, 27 years we will not see another surge upwards for around fifteen years or until 2030.

Each time we get a surge the temperature goes up about half a degree over a period of 25 to thirty years. If the temperature has risen about .85C so far since 1890 and holds steady for 27 years  until 2030 and we then get a .5C surge during the next  25 years the temperature will have risen  1.3C by 2055 or so.

This is well on track for the IPCC prediction. As we are in uncharted territory for World global warming of this sort it is not likely to be as predictable as that and I fear that the outcome will be a lot worse and a lot quicker than we think but it is anyone’s guess.

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