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Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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 Gulf Stream slowing and Sea level rise.

9/4/2015

3 Comments

 
The value of monitoring the oceans has become apparent in a report in Nature by Quirin Schiermeier.
He has shown that since the deployment of the RAPID monitoring array which is string of moored buoys across the Atlantic there has been a two thirds reduction in the speed of the Gulf Stream current.


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A separate report from Florida shows that for the last five years the sea level has been rising at 1.27’ a year or 160 mm.


This is similar to the NOAA report which showed a similar sea level rise in the Northeast of the USA between 2009 and 2010.

In the past sea levels in the oceans have risen 120 meters due to an 8C increase in temperature over 15,000 years or so. This rise was mainly due to melting ice but also partly due to expansion of the sea caused by the increased temperature. On a global scale today we know that the contribution of these two factors has produced a sea level rise of 3.2 mm a year caused by a steady increase in the volume of water and the contribution from Greenland and Antarctica is growing.

However there are other factors involved that can change the level of the sea locally. A steady trade wind can cause water to pile up on the downwind shore, the gravitational pull of the mass of ice in Greenland can pull extra water to its shores and also ocean currents and tides can cause water to pile up or sink away.


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As the current of the Gulf Stream leaves the coast of the USA and heads towards Europe it sucks water from the shore of the USA and if that current declines in speed then this water will not be pulled so hard and will return to the shore causing a rise in sea level.

There is no overall increase in the quantity of water but these local changes can  flood houses and towns that were previously dry.



3 Comments
Bob Bristow
9/4/2015 03:48:25 pm

Many thanks for keeping us up to date on Earth Science events, particularly climate related happenings.

I was reading about the RAPID findings from the National Oceanography Center in their exciting collaboration with scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) and the University of Miami in the USA. Conclusion is that it is declining faster than Computer Climate models predicted. Fortunately they have empirical evidence in place in the form of ocean monitors.

"Firstly, it had been thought that the strength overturning of the AMOC would weaken due to climate change. However, the ocean sensors have detected that the AMOC is now declining faster than anticipated (Smeed et al. 2014), which could potentially have a long-term impact on Britain’s climate. "


http://noc.ac.uk/news/ten-years-ocean-monitoring-uncovers-secrets-changing-uk-winters

This ties up with the recent Potsdam findings that were based on paleoclimatic reconstructions.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/atlantic-ocean-overturning-found-to-slow-down-already-today

These changes to the Earth's conveyor belt system have occurred before of course, but not at the incredible pace that our supercharging of the atmosphere with GHGs is causing.





Reply
Bob Bingham
10/4/2015 08:32:27 am

The slowing of the Gulf stream has huge implications for all of us. If the UK lost its warm westerlies it would be a disaster for the economy and I am sure a lot of other countries as well.
A lot of heat leaves the Gulf on Mexico with the Gulf stream so I would be interested to see if the temperatures go up there.
It could easily bring more hurricanes to the Gulf this summer or it may change the wind patterns in the region. We will have to wait and see.

Reply
stefanthedenier link
28/4/2015 04:16:13 am

Most of the water in the sea is below 4C (39F) - water below 4C; when warms up -> it shrinks / when cools extra, it expands => that makes your theory 100% WRONG!

2] the earth was never 8C warmer - the Temperature Self Adjusting Mechanism (TSAM) doesn't permit that. Learn some truth, You'll stop wetting the bed, from fear of the phony global warming: https://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2014/07/12/cooling-earth/

Reply



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    Bob Bingham 

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