http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/blog.html

1.5 C temperature rise coming soon?

24/12/2015

A report by James Renwick about the AGU Fall Meeting posted on Hot Topic highlighted the possible end to the temperature hiatus. As you can see from the above chart we have had two previous pauses in the temperature increase, one in 1900 and one 1940. If we are indeed coming out of the third pause and heading for a rise such as was experienced after 1940 then as James said “ if we are now heading back into a more El Niño-dominated period (as in the 1980s and 90s). A period of rapid warming such as we saw in the late 20th century would blow global temperatures right through the 1.5°C warming “guardrail”, given we are already at one degree of warming since pre-industrial times.”
This would indeed be a really bad outcome and bring every dire climate change prediction a lot closer than anyone thinks.

5 Comments

Bob Bristow

24/12/2015 11:48:15 am

Many thanks for that insight, things are really changing much faster than modeled or imagined, many people thought all changes would be linear, but those lines are beginning to curve upwards.

I Read a good article in today's PlanetExperts authored by one of the original "Hockey Stick" scientist team: Michael Mann, very much in-line with your posting.

"So what’s the bottom line? Well, we’re actually closer to the dangerous 2C warming mark than many experts acknowledge. And yet there is still hope for limiting warming to 2C despite claims to the contrary by some.

Doing so would require rapid decarbonization of our economy and, perhaps, implementation of strategies and technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. If we decide that 2C is still too much warming, and seek a lower target of 1.5C, the challenge is more uphill. Reducing emissions alone won’t be adequate, and sequestration of atmospheric carbon will be critical."

http://www.planetexperts.com/how-close-are-we-to-dangerous-planetary-warming/.

Kevin Hester

24/12/2015 02:55:22 pm

I thought Mann's article above was a hopium cop out, he is spinning 2C when 6C is locked in

Bob Bingham

24/12/2015 03:54:44 pm

Hi Bob. In all the climate research the big uncertainty is about timing. We know that the temperature is going up and we know the ice will melt and we know sea levels will rise but how long will it take? This is the link to a Hot Topic NZ climate site and one of our top climate scientists where he mentions the ice round the Antarctic.The warm water from the deep is rising and now touching the bottom of the ice shelves when it rises the extra 300 meters to the surface there will be some very big changes. http://hot-topic.co.nz/fall-in-san-francisco-jim-renwicks-agu-report/

Kevin Hester

24/12/2015 02:55:44 pm

The pause or hiatus wasn't even really either.
Here is Mike Mann's take on it converted into a facebook note.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/kevin-hester/michael-mann-debunks-the-myth-of-the-hiatus-in-global-warming-all-content-by-mik/10205657514969855

Bob Bristow

24/12/2015 05:59:42 pm

I agree - Statistics (and nearly every reputable climate scientist) affirm there was no pause, the first I heard of it was in a cherry picked graph that David Rose of the Mail on Sunday published, picking the high point of a previous El Nino. After reading that Exxon and peers have suppressed known evidence in the 1970's and even heavily funded denial, I am surprised that governments aren't now looking to phase out fossil fueled automobiles. Instead painfully slow small steps are taken. I do not consider myself as an alarmist, I just think that the human brain is not suited to long term thinking - trouble is it is suited to inventing engineering solutions. That worries me most of all. Thanks Bob for sharing that hot topic article. It hit the spot.

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1.5 C temperature rise coming soon?

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