We need to convert our transport away from oil to electrical power as quickly as possible to stop producing CO2 which is causing climate change and will destroy our way of life.
Is it possible and is it likely?
Well, incredibly, there is a strong possibility that it is going to happen.
To understand the scale of the problem here are a few figures. We currently have around 1000 million personal cars on the planet and manufacturer about 70 million new cars a year which gives an average lifespan of the fleet around 15 years,
Is it possible and is it likely?
Well, incredibly, there is a strong possibility that it is going to happen.
To understand the scale of the problem here are a few figures. We currently have around 1000 million personal cars on the planet and manufacturer about 70 million new cars a year which gives an average lifespan of the fleet around 15 years,
There are currently less than 1% electric cars in the fleet and relatively very few in production so there is a long way to go. So what has changed that gives this optimism?
Electric cars use high specification Lithium Ion batteries that are expensive and make up a large part of the cars total cost and the battery’s capacity dictates the cars range, so it is the battery that is the deal breaker.
The price of batteries has been dropping rapidly and needs to get below $125 per Kilowatt of storage to be below the cost of petrol for delivering transport competitively.
Electric cars use high specification Lithium Ion batteries that are expensive and make up a large part of the cars total cost and the battery’s capacity dictates the cars range, so it is the battery that is the deal breaker.
The price of batteries has been dropping rapidly and needs to get below $125 per Kilowatt of storage to be below the cost of petrol for delivering transport competitively.
There are other ways of looking at the same facts and they all point in a downward projection.
The technology in batteries is progressing so quickly that it will certainly be cost competitive against petrol within two or three years, if it has not already done so. The battery in the new Volkswagen iD.3 is reportedly below $100 per Kilowatt hour but that car is only just in production so we will have to wait a year before we find out.
Battery cost is one subject but the sheer volume of car production that is needed to make a difference is huge, but could it be achieved? The two manufacturers who have volume production at the moment are Tesla at around 270,000 a year and Nissan at about 85,000 while the popular Renault Zoe produces 30,000 cars a year and the Hyundai Kona a similar number. If we add in all the other manufacturers, we could be just over 500,000 cars a year.
The technology in batteries is progressing so quickly that it will certainly be cost competitive against petrol within two or three years, if it has not already done so. The battery in the new Volkswagen iD.3 is reportedly below $100 per Kilowatt hour but that car is only just in production so we will have to wait a year before we find out.
Battery cost is one subject but the sheer volume of car production that is needed to make a difference is huge, but could it be achieved? The two manufacturers who have volume production at the moment are Tesla at around 270,000 a year and Nissan at about 85,000 while the popular Renault Zoe produces 30,000 cars a year and the Hyundai Kona a similar number. If we add in all the other manufacturers, we could be just over 500,000 cars a year.
What will mark the start of a serious lift in volumes are the huge new factories being opened by Tesla in Shanghai and by Volkswagen in Germany where Tesla are starting with a target production of 300,000 a year which they believe could reach 500,000 and Volkswagen are starting at 300,000 and could reach 330,000.
This is a huge increase in production numbers and we have still not seen any movement by volume manufacturers such as Ford, GM and Toyota and it’s the real metal bashers that can make the difference. They are all pouring financial investments into electric cars but no signs of production yet.
If it all comes together as predicted battery prices will be lower than the comparable cost of petrol transport by about 2022 and hence there will be no point in an oil powered car. The volume car plants will convert to electric cars by about 2025 and we may have converted our entire vehicle fleet by 2040.
It may be earlier because, if we allow autonomous self-driving cars then many people will cease to have personal ownership of a car and therefore, we may not need to replace the whole 1000 million fleet because they would not be needed.
If it all comes together as predicted battery prices will be lower than the comparable cost of petrol transport by about 2022 and hence there will be no point in an oil powered car. The volume car plants will convert to electric cars by about 2025 and we may have converted our entire vehicle fleet by 2040.
It may be earlier because, if we allow autonomous self-driving cars then many people will cease to have personal ownership of a car and therefore, we may not need to replace the whole 1000 million fleet because they would not be needed.
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