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A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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Disruptive Technology, Universal income and Pensions.

17/9/2017

5 Comments

 
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The very fast pace of change in our modern world means that one generation is not going to be the same as the last, as even the last ten years has shown. Planning for the future needs and open mind and a good sense of social awareness.
To get an idea of the changes that are very close to us now I suggest that you watch this video of Tony Seba and reflect on the many social issues that will come from it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&t=93s&list=FLiUwiBc_bp0xCGnsJ2LL2Tg&index=4
The video portrays some massive changes, many of which are apparent today, which will bring massive disruption to our lives and if we are to avoid massive social unrest we need to be planning for the future with a completely different mindset.

Universal wage.
The election has brought to the surface retirement pensions and the thorny issue of what age to fix it at. We also have the problem of social benefits for illness and unemployment. Lurking around the edges is the idea of the universal wage, so some people are considering changes to our social structure already. For those not familiar with the concept of a Universal Wage here is some text from Wikipedia
Basic income is potentially a much simpler and more transparent welfare system than the one existing in the welfare states around the world today.[11] Instead of having numerous welfare programs, it would simply be one universal unconditional income. This strategy for introducing basic income is controversial because some basic income supporters argue that it should be added to the existing welfare system rather than a replacement for it. 
Many hard working people do not take kindly to some people getting a living and not working, but there are bigger issues at stake and mass unemployment is a distinct possibility and it could lead to political and social instability.
We currently have unemployment rates of around 5% but governments, worldwide are notoriously devious about those figures and hide it with education and retraining plans which, in a way, accepts that there are not enough jobs to employ all those who want to work and so they go for retraining to take them off the unemployment lists.
One of the big advantages of a universal wage is that it takes the pressure off people and they then start using their creative ability to start small enterprises to earn extra money or to do good social or environmental work.
Pensions
​Here are some thoughts on the where we could have a floating retirement age where, you can choose your own retirement date starting from age sixty but the longer you leave it the more you get. The average actuarial age of death is well researched and so the government know how much they will have to pay out to the retired population. If you are a New Zealand male you are going to die (on average) at 79.1 years old. Currently pension is paid from 65 and so there are about 14.1 years of payment at $691.44 a fortnight totalling $253,481.90. If you chose to retire early at 60 you would get 19.1 years of pension and so you would get $510.43 a fortnight. If you had a hard life or illness you might prefer to retire early and make the most of it.
If we can get more people to retire early it will make room for younger people to get jobs.
As mentioned at the beginning there are massive technological social and environmental changes coming and we need to have a very open mind to avoid big social problems.
5 Comments
Bob Bristow
17/9/2017 06:07:01 pm

Many thanks for this interesting and thought provoking posting Bob, I will reserve an hour and follow the video a bit later. It is a good time to think about pensions just before the N.Z elections. I started on mine at 65 and it has made my life a lot easier, now at 70, it is good to know I hopefully have around 10.1 years left in my innings, I hope to stretch it a little bit longer. Everyone should enjoy a break after a lifetime of work and service. I guess the problem is in the post world war II boomer generation.

Unrelated to your latest topic, but I was glad to see that at long last the "Mail on Sunday" has been chastized for printing fake climate news through "David Rose". I remember Ken Ring crowing about Rose's articles back in 2012, and couldn't understand why the British press watchdog didn't take action earlier.

"A self-policing group within the British news industry has forced the tabloid The Mail on Sunday to acknowledge that an article it published asserting that climate researchers in the United States had manipulated data was inaccurate and misleading."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/16/climate/british-press-watchdog-climate-change.html




Reply
Bob Bingham
18/9/2017 07:28:28 am

hello Bob. I have not been doing as many posts recently as i am doing more on Facebook and Twitter but longer pieces that require more thought are better suited to a blog. The Mail is a tits and bums paper but used to publish so accurate articles on climate change but it has changed. My view is that the newspaper owners are in an orchestrated group with Bannon and some American and Russian billionaires who want to break up Europe and have organised BREXIT to achieve that.
Tony Seba has some very reasoning in his video and in the last three years there has been a progression in his figures that are in line with real time events. The key to the price of electric cars is when Ford and GM put a high volume production line down exclusively for a new electric car.

Reply
Dennis JANICEK link
7/10/2017 10:18:06 am

**Cultural Change**
#global_warming #culture

1) Climate change is a disruptive change. Technology changes everything but cultural change takes decades and generations to change.

2) So blacks in the USA were given their freedom during a time when it was fashionable and trendy to end slavery. Czar Nicholas gave the serfs their freedom about the time the blacks got theirs. However, culture prevented black Americans from volunteering for the Army of the North, because white Americans had severe doubts about the morality of black Americans.

3) Edmund Burke said in «Reflections on the French Revolution» that culture could only change slowly, so he became the father of Conservativism. Before that the slowness of cultural change was noted in the Bible:

Exodus 34:05 And the LORD descended in the cloud, and stood with him there, and proclaimed the name of the LORD. 6 And the LORD passed by before him, and proclaimed, The LORD, The LORD God, merciful and gracious, longsuffering, and abundant in goodness and truth, 7 Keeping mercy for thousands, forgiving iniquity and transgression and sin, and that will by no means clear the guilty; visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children, and upon the children' children, unto the ((third and to the fourth generation.))
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/KJV/%20Exodus34%2C05-07

The idea of punishing the 3rd or 4th generation is because of the slowness of cultural changes, because the Bible forbids punishing the son for the crimes of the father.

4) So if blacks go to school after their freedom in 1865 and the economy of the South recovers after the Reconstruction ends in 1877, then black Americans should have some leaders in Congress 50 years later in 1927. However, Barack Obama entered the Senate in 2006 and becomes president in 2008. So

2006-1877= 129 years

So this about four generations of 30 years each (120 years).

5) The Russians had a smaller cultural change, so the Czar was overthrown about 50 years after 1865 (which is 1915 and is close to the actual date 1917).

6) When Albert Einstein proposed relativity, the physicists of a few generations had to die before it was accepted. This was called the paradigm shift.

7) E = m c^2 was a large cultural change, so when Otto Hahn split the atom, he had to send a letter to Lise Meitner to do the relativity calculations. This was during the NAZI regime so the relativity of Einstein, the Jew, could not be taught. Lise Meitner was Jewish and knew relativity, but had to leave Otto Hahn's team and Germany to avoid becoming a bar of soap. Another example how culture is slow to change.

8) Global warming is a disruptive change. Bark beetles are killing forests worldwide:

Small Pests, Big Problems: The Global Spread of Bark Beetles
http://e360.yale.edu/features/small-pests-big-problems-the-global-spread-of-bark-beetles

9) We have not had a cold year since 1974, so global warming will only be believed when the current generation (my generation) dies. Until then, the culture will not change. No matter what people say, they will not believe that CO2 went from 300 ppm to 403 ppm and it is rising 3 ppm/year (1% per year assuming, 300 ppm is the textbook value). One percent per year is scary when you consider bark beetles and all the other consequences.

10) So the video on disruptive changes is very applicable. Changes occur with technology but people will not change their opinions until the technology overcomes them. So Malcolm Trumbull of Australia and Don Trump of America will continue to believe in coal until they are replaced by the next generation.

Reply
Dennis JANICEK link
7/10/2017 01:48:15 pm

I thought I was the equal of you, Bob Bingham, and Bob Bristow because Barack Obama was our president. When Donald Trump became our president, I realized that the culture of my country was inferior to Australia and New Zealand. I could not believe that but the evidence is there. The altercations we had with African Americans indicate that are still inferior culturally. I think we have African Americans to blame for the problems but the reactions of white Americans show that all Americans are backward if they cannot get over these altercations. Now Scott Pruitt does not support the US EPA, 50 years after Rachel Carson wrote «Silent Spring». The lesson learned is we learned no lessons. I feel so sorry for my country but I cannot do anything about it. When President Donald Trump withdrew from climate negotiations, I applauded that so he could not sabotage them. Scott Pruitt wanted to renegotiate them to send them back to 1997. I am ashamed of my nation.

Reply
Bob Bristow
14/10/2017 06:23:13 pm

No need to feel ashamed Dennis, Australia had a denial government, especially when Tony Abbott was P.M, Canada too when Stephen Harper was the P.M. Now the U.S has the same, but is much more powerful. We just have to be patient, and hope for sanity in the next election. My hope is with the Millennials generation as in numbers they seem to be more appreciative of the problems our industrial revolution is causing. I just hope that the U.S improves it technology to stop any interference with the democratic process as many implications are being cast around at the moment. I think 2016 proved that the denial industry was even stronger than most suspected. we just need to work harder to put them in their place and let the science side win. Easier said than done however, but plenty of good people trying including Bob Bingham.

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