http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/blog.html

Earth's sensitivity to climate.

31/1/2017

There is always debate about how sensitive the planet is to small changes or is it robust enough to resist the damage that people are doing and continue to deliver an unchanged environment.
One indicator might be the slight increase in inclination that is caused every 125,000 years by Jupiter, which starts the onset of a warm periods where the temperature will rise 5 C.
In the Earth's natural state the temperature is 5 C cooler than today and there would be ice two kilometers thick over North America, down to New York and over Russia with thick ice down to Germany and Scotland.
This change is caused by an increase of inclination of just 2.4 degrees. Sufficient to change the climate completely.
http://globalwarmingsimplified.weebly.com/the-planet-cycles-between-cold-ad-warm-periods.html

6 Comments

Dennis Janicek link

4/2/2017 11:51:08 am

**God Created the World Perfect**
#global_warming #misconception #misconception_based_learning #malthusian_trap

1. The question of how sensitive the Earth is, is not important. The Earth has had mass die offs before. Human society and economy are so much more sensitive. The currency collapse of the US dollar affected the whole world's economy. Too bad the US does not elect presidents and governments who pay attention to «Monetarism». «Monetarism» was developed by Nobel-winning American Milton Friedman, who also was a conservative and a Republican. Naïve people, who were conservatives and Republicans, ignored this and created the currency collapse and the «Great Recession». Senator John McCain recognized the coming collapse from European publications four years before. I also knew about it from a US military course on «Six International Security Risks». The military training also considered «Global Warming», which the US Government does not believe, as a security risk due to migrations. Adverse effects of «Global Warming» will cause an avalanche in our economy in a similar way to the currency collapse, but it will be a «Great Depression».

2. Science educators have shown that the more you teach about «Global Warming», the less people believe; See:

The science for climate change only feeds the denial: how do you beat that?, 27-Jan-16 by John Cook, The University of Queensland
https://theconversation.com/the-science-for-climate-change-only-feeds-the-denial-how-do-you-beat-that-52813

3. The skeptics believe the things they learned in childhood are under attack:

— the free market ideology and
— God created the world perfect because God is perfect.

They believe that conspirators are challenging their childhood beliefs to get them to pay more taxes. The vaccine for this conspiracy theory is «Misconception-Based Learning» [See my post: https://plus.google.com/109826290307918810462/posts/jeQ1qfuwoZj]. So let me show in this comment that God did not promise us a perfect world, but promised us an end to the world.

4. The Bible predicts drought:

Isaiah 24:4 The earth «dries up and withers», the world languishes and withers, the heavens languish with the earth.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/NIV/Isaiah24,4

5. The Bible predicts more violent storms and floods:

Isaiah 24:18 Whoever flees at the sound of terror will fall into a pit; whoever climbs out of the pit will be caught in a snare. The «floodgates» of the heavens are opened, the foundations of the earth shake.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/NIV/Isaiah24,18

6. So the Bible contradicts itself by predicting floods and droughts, but «Global Warming» does the same thing. The same passage on floods predicts the sea level rise from the melting ice caps.

7. The result can only be a global depression. Everyone will lose money from the loss from sea level rise and refugees will be everywhere. See:

Isaiah 24:1 Behold, the LORD maketh the earth empty, and maketh it waste, and turneth it upside down, and scattereth abroad the inhabitants thereof. 2 And it shall be, as with the people, so with the priest; as with the servant, so with his master; as with the maid, so with her mistress; as with the buyer, so with the seller; as with the lender, so with the borrower; as with the taker of usury, so with the giver of usury to him.
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/KJV/Isaiah24,2

8. Furthermore third world countries are subject to the «Malthusian Trap». Syrian population doubles every 25 years but it's product does not double every 25 years because it is stuck in the agriculture age. Egypt and other countries are in the same trap. The coming depression will dry up capital to them. Neither Syria nor Egypt can feed themselves now. They will not have any safety margin. They will blame the white man in the West for their trap because they will be in famine.

9. So the Bible did not promise a perfect Earth, so a childhood belief is proven wrong. However nations will be in political turmoil. Think of the political turmoil of the Syrian Refugee problem in Europe and how it threatened the European Union. It certainly contributed to Britain's exit from the European Union (BREXIT). (The Bosnian Moslems are European, so their impact as refugees was insignificant, but Syrians have Middle Eastern culture, which is definitely Islamic and they like to fight and have definite moral views.) Think of how President Trump closed the US border to several Moslem countries and caused controversy. Multiply that many fold because of global depression, refugees everywhere and many countries suffering from the famine of the «Malthusian Trap».

Bob Bingham

5/2/2017 09:37:00 am

Hello Dennis. Your arguments take a very American view in that the rest of the world is not very interested in what the bible says about climate change we are only interested in the science. When the worlds temperature goes up another degree food production, world wide, will start to fail and this will lead to the mass movement of people which will effect every country on the planet and disrupt all our lives.

Dennis Janicek link

5/2/2017 04:21:13 pm

1 You are right in that only in America do people believe in creationism and want it taught in schools. People elsewhere are very comfortable with the co-existence of evolution and the creation story of the Bible. This is because the US is a very conservative country and is more conservative than other Anglo-Saxon countries that are also among the most conservative of the world. However, we should be trying to reach conservatives with «Misconception-Based Learning». For conservatives in every country, Bible-based denial is a very pertinent misconception. Other conservatives support the Gaia hypothesis:

Gaia Hypothesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis

2 My Bible-based «Global Warming» conception is flawed because religious people constantly believe that the world is ending and it has not ended. Christians usually assert homosexual marriage and abortion as the cause of the end. However, this is the first time that both religious people and science people both believe in the end of the world as we know it. So the Biblical arguments are very pertinent misconception for «Misconception-Based Learning». To think of misconceptions, you have to think like a died-in-the-wool conservative, which is perhaps like Sarah Palin or Donald Trump.

3 Geert Hofstede showed that culture is very slowly changing like Edmund Burke said. We have created a word that describes the change of cultures, «Paradigm Shift».

4 From 1776 to 1865, the US went through a series of constitutions and republics until they ended up with one where everyone including black Americans can vote. So on February 20, we will celebrate president's day that includes President Abraham Lincoln, who freed the slaves and created the present republic. Think 100 years to go from limited democracy (1776) to full democracy (1865). Before 1865, the US Federal Government did not function. In the War of 1812, the American army would not cross the border into Canada, so we lost the war. The British recruited black slaves in Virginia to burn down the White House to shame the American people with slavery and to win the war. When the US freed the slaves, Czarist Russia freed the serfs at the same time. So cultures changed around the world at the same slow pace.

5 The US thought that the Shaw of Iran was against democracy, civil rights and feminism. So they backed the Ayatollah, who brought «democracy, civil rights and feminism». When will Americans learn that cultures change slowly? In conservative Moslem countries, God's law preempts man-made law. God's law is the clerical hierarchy and man-made law is democracy. Conservatives cannot stand the idea of democracy, which causes the immorality of the mass of the people to become the man-made law. Only the clerics are holy enough to outlaw immorality.

6 So God punishes sin to four generations:

Exodus 34:6 And he passed in front of Moses, proclaiming, «The Lord, the Lord, the compassionate and gracious God, slow to anger, abounding in love and faithfulness, 7 maintaining love to thousands, and forgiving wickedness, rebellion and sin. Yet he does not leave the guilty unpunished; he punishes the children and their children for the sin of the parents to the third and ‹fourth generation›.»
https://www.bibleserver.com/text/NIV/Exodus34,6-7

7 It takes three or four generations for immigrants to the US to mix enough with the American population to produce someone who thinks he is only American and to disregard the mother country. It took four generations after the sin of slavery to elect Barack Obama to president. Many people honestly thought that America was not ready for a black president, so culture changes slowly. Conservatives were skeptical of the morality of black Americans like conservative Moslems are skeptical of the morality of the majority. After four generations, most people were ready for a black president, who would go on to win the Nobel prize and establish education and health as his goal. The US must be the «smart educated workforce» to compete for capital for industry that supports labor. US cannot compete with labor rates with countries in famine or third world countries because of the value of its currency.

8 So perhaps we have to wait for the next generation for the «Paradigm Shift» to seriously tackle CO2, but by then the half of the effect of 400 ppm, a 33% excess, will come into effect and it will be too late to prevent climate change.

9 Look at how the deniers are fighting climate change in New Zealand:

An insider’s story of the global attack on climate science, 23-Jan-14
https://theconversation.com/an-insiders-story-of-the-global-attack-on-climate-science-21972

They were determined to find a «conspiracy». Note that they also ran a series of anti-global warming billboards in the US, comparing «climate alarmist

Dennis Janicek link

5/2/2017 04:34:38 pm

Sorry, the application does not allow me to edit my comments and did not take all the text. So to continue:

9 Look at how the deniers are fighting climate change in New Zealand:

An insider’s story of the global attack on climate science, 23-Jan-14
https://theconversation.com/an-insiders-story-of-the-global-attack-on-climate-science-21972

They were determined to find a «conspiracy». Note that they also ran a series of anti-global warming billboards in the US, comparing «climate alarmists» with terrorists and mass murderers, like the «Unabomber». They act like people whose cultural norms are attacked and are in culture shock.

10 So we must attack the misconceptions rather putting forth the science. The science does not impress them, but they cling to their traditions. They do use science in their arguments but use «Misconception-Based Learning». They argue that «Global Warming» stopped in 1998 by using only the facts that support their beliefs and ignoring the contrary facts. This «Misconception-Based Learning» approach works for them.

Bob Bingham

7/2/2017 04:15:08 pm

One of your comments on the second half of your post was about denial in New Zealand. We did have a minister for a minor party that models itself on the Republican party who went to the Heartland meeting representing the New Zealand government (which he was not) and there have been a few other incidents but not much. the big difference id that our newspapers are independent Australian and Associated Press (out of favour with Trump)
As a result there is almost no denial and plenty of intelligent articles on climate change. Even so our government is doing very little about making changes.

Dennis Janicek link

8/2/2017 11:44:04 am

**Paradigm Shift and Don Trump**

1. The US has more coal and oil than New Zealand, so there is much more misinformation coming from US «conservative think tanks» due to funding from the fossil fuel industry, such as US-based Peabody Coal and Exxon. See:

«A brief history of fossil-fueled climate denial», June 21, 2016
John Cook, The University of Queensland
https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-fossil-fuelled-climate-denial-61273

The article states, «David Sassoon, founder of Pulitzer Prize-winning news organization, ‹Inside Climate News›, led an investigation into Exxon’s internal research, discovering that its own scientists had warned the company of the harmful impacts of fossil fuel burning as long ago as the 1970s.» So why would Exxon commit suicide with «Global Warming» just to promote its products?

2. This could be the cultural inertia that rejects changing ideas. A «Paradigm Shift», as identified by American physicist and philosopher Thomas Kuhn, is a fundamental change in the basic concepts and experimental practices of a scientific discipline. People are unable to accept the fundamental change and believe it is a result of a conspiracy. Only future generations can accept the change.

a. The «Paradigm Shift» was first identified by the founder of conservatism, Edmund Burke, in his «Reflections on the Revolution in France». When I read this is high school, I thought that it was a good book to read to get a passing grade. George Orwell's «Animal Farm» seemed like a good excuse to hate Communists. Now I can see that slow change is fundamental in understanding human behavior because people cannot adapt to quick change. That is why Moore's law is giving us future shock.

b. There was a conspiracy theory that it was the Jews who were advancing the theory of relativity. Otto Hahn, who won the Nobel prize did not use relativity, but sent a letter to his colleague, Lisa Meitner, who was a Jew, who proved he had split the atom using relativity. The Jews were the only ones who knew that there was no Jewish conspiracy to support relativity. It took generations for scientists to accept Einstein's relativity. (Incidentally, Lisa Meitner converted to Christianity and Einstein was an atheist with a poetic vision of God, so neither could be considered good candidates for a Jewish conspiracy.)

c. In the first implementation of GPS, the administrators rejected relativity and only got GPS to work after they used it. In fact, you can still Google «gps relativity myth» and find plenty of articles denying it.

3. Today, Donald Trump sees the «Global Warming» conspiracy coming from China:

«‹Shocking and scary›: how Trump’s victory was received at the UN climate talks in Marrakech», November 11, 2016
https://theconversation.com/shocking-and-scary-how-trumps-victory-was-received-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-marrakech-68537

The Chinese were always the most conservative advocates of climate change among the nations of the world and were not leading the charge.

4. So «Misconception-Based Learning» can be more effective, but the culture inertia cannot be rushed because people continue to cling to their culture and even fund «conservative think tanks» to turn this into a political opinion issue and look for conspiracy among the Chinese and scientists. According to Trump, the Chinese want it to destroy our economy and the scientists want to increase taxes. It appears to me that people's minds evolved not to do scientific thinking, but to cling to the cultural practices that gave them survival in the past.

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