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Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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El Nino on its way. Is it a big one?

31/5/2014

8 Comments

 
Information from NOAA and commented on by top USA climate scientist Kiwi Kevin Trenberth, indicate that we have a larger than normal El Nino event forming and this is a much shortened version of the forecast.
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With the deployment of the Argo buoys in 2004 we now have much better information of what is happening in the oceans and it is easier to see when an El Nino is forming and to forecast its size and effect.

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Of the classic early indicators we have recently had three big bursts of Westerly wind which blow in the reverse direction to the normal seasonal trade winds.

 There has also been a 100mm (4") increase in sea level in the Eastern pacific as the sea is driven up by the wind and boosted by thermal expansion as it heats up.


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A more serious and certain indicator is the Kelvin wave which is a huge mass of warm water at a depth of 150 metres below the surface moving in an easterly direction towards Mexico and this water is 6C above normal.

During June there will be a more certain estimate of the El Niño’s size and it should start affecting our weather in December and peak in February. Classic changes to the weather would be increased hurricanes in the East Pacific around Hawaii and Tahiti with increased rains in Mexico and California, disruption of the monsoons in India and Africa and a hot and disrupted weather pattern all round the world.

 In New Zealand we may have a drought.


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From the NASA world temperature graph you can see that 1998 was an abnormally hot year which is why the deniers say we have not had any warming for seventeen years (2010 was actually the hottest year but in the deniers world facts get in the way of good misinformation) and if we get an El Nino of equivalent strength we should get a similar temperature spike.

With the number of people who die in these big events it is not a happy forecast.



8 Comments
Andy
1/6/2014 03:35:37 am

Interesting article let down by your use of the offensive term "denier"

Reply
bob Bongham
1/6/2014 05:42:29 am

Thanks for your comment.Climate change is a bigger and more destructive event than world war 2 and I get fed up with politicians and journalists who claim that what is happening is some sort of political scam and have done huge damage to the world by putting off and chance of making changes.
We only have one planet and there is no plan B.

Reply
Robert Bristow
5/6/2014 10:48:04 am

Another excellent blog and it looks like we will have an eventful summer, already there have been unprecedented heat-waves (and unfortunately heatstroke deaths), in Pakistan, China, India and Japan. I cannot understand why so many people think talking about Climate Change/Global Warming is political. I detest politics of any sort, but love science. When I try and express my fears and warnings about the future, many people think I am being political. It is a bit late now to discover the difference between science and politics alas. Regards from one Bob to another.

Reply
Robert Bristow
5/6/2014 10:53:49 am

Quite interesting recent articles from Discovery News and Climate Central

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/brace-for-record-heat-as-el-nino-approaches-140603.htm

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/how-will-we-know-when-el-nino-finally-arrives-17512

Reply
Robert Bristow
5/6/2014 10:54:39 am

Quite interesting recent articles from Discovery News and Climate Central

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/brace-for-record-heat-as-el-nino-approaches-140603.htm

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/how-will-we-know-when-el-nino-finally-arrives-17512

Reply
Bob Bingham
6/6/2014 10:38:11 am

The political situation in New Zealand is not like the USA as climate change is generally accepted as happening its just that the government think its clever to try and cheat the system . I give talks to organisations with information based on the website and get a good reception. I would get one denier in fifty people and most of those are just saying we can't live without oil.
Every day I go on to digital newspapers and post a comment warning of the dangers and then putting in the URL of a page from the website. This means I can get a message across without a big debate, My hits are up to 600+ a month which is quite good and I get nearly all fav comments which is quite encouraging.
There are more supporters and understanders than the media would have you believe. We Bob's must stick together and keep the faith.

Reply
Andy
7/6/2014 02:36:39 pm

You need to stick together and "keep the faith"

Oh dear, what a terrible admission.

Reply
Dennis Janicek link
9/1/2017 03:21:10 pm

Mr Bingham, we are made from the same clod of dirt. The political situation in New Zealand is just like that in the USA. «Climate Change» is accepted by a Nobel Prize Winner, who happened to be US President Barack Obama. Both houses of Congress are Republican and do not accept it. Now, we have Don Trump, who is skeptical about Global Warming. See:

I told my students to be optimistic about the climate – after Trump, I feel an utter fraud, 15 Nov 16
https://theconversation.com/i-told-my-students-to-be-optimistic-about-the-climate-after-trump-i-feel-an-utter-fraud-68774

Do not compare New Zealand politicians to a single Nobel-winning president in the US. It will be a long time before either New Zealand or US have another Nobel-winning leader.

Reply



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