http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/blog.html

Extreme event attribution by NOAA

17/12/2016

When we have an extreme storm people want to know whether it was caused by climate change. The answer is that all events carry an element of climate change because the atmosphere is warmer and holds more moisture but it can only be expressed as a probability not a black and white yes or no.

Here is a NOAA graphic of the calculations of the result of climate change and what would happen without it.
For the full article click here.

1 Comment

Bob Bristow

17/12/2016 07:07:25 pm

Many thanks for the interesting piece on attribution and link to the professionals who do all of the work in sorting it out.

Also from NOAA amazing odds from both ends of the planet . .

Global sea ice in November: Black swans flock to both poles

In November 2016, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.2 standard deviations below the 1981–2010 average. The chance of that happening is 1 in 1,000. At the same time, Antarctic sea ice extent was 5.7 standard deviations below its 1981–2010 November average. The chance of that happening is 1 in 100,000,000!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/global-sea-ice-november-black-swans-flock-both-poles

Wonder if the gambling shops offer odds on an sea ice free summer in the Arctic, might be worth a flutter.

Bob Bingham Blog page.

Extreme event attribution by NOAA

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Bob Bingham

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