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Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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First El Nino since records began.

18/3/2014

1 Comment

 
Although we have been measuring temperature, sunshine hours and rainfall for 160 years ,since the thermometer was invented, we have almost no records of the oceans. The oceans make up 70% of the Earth surface and they absorb 93% of all the heat retained on earth.
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By comparison with the records we keep on land we know very little about what goes on under the surface of the oceans.
The Argo project was devised to launch 3500 floats to cover the oceans and record temperatures,salinity and velocity down to a depth of 2000 meters.

 
This is text taken from the Argo web site.
‘Lack of sustained observations of the atmosphere, oceans and land have hindered the development and validation of climate models. An example comes from a recent analysis which concluded that the currents transporting heat northwards in the Atlantic and influencing western
European climate had weakened by 30% in the past decade. This result had to be based on just five research measurements spread over 40 years. Was this change part of a trend that might lead to a major change in the Atlantic circulation, or due to natural variability that will reverse in the future, or is it an artifact of the limited observations?

In 1999, to combat this lack of data, an innovative step was taken by scientists to greatly improve the collection of observations inside the ocean through increased sampling of old and new quantities and increased coverage in terms of time and area.’

. 
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There are now 3500 floats around the World and they have been operational since 2007. Seven years is not long to monitor a changing climate and even then it is an incomplete set of records. Due to the difficulty of  maintaining devices in the part of the sea where there is no sunlight  and there is extreme pressure, there are almost no measurements taken of the very deep parts of the oceans .

The last El Nino was in 1998 which saw a massive spike in atmospheric temperatures with droughts and floods and huge disruption to farming and food production but there are very few records from the Pacific which was the main driver of the event.

NASA has now raised the likelihood of an El Nino in September to 50%  and no doubt there will be a big scramble to get buoys, satellites and other measuring devices in position to record the event for the first time..  

1 Comment
Bob Bristow
23/3/2014 05:41:04 am

Certainly begins to look likely that we will have an El Nino - and it will be interesting to see how it affects surface temperatures. The Potsdam institute say there is a 3 in 4 chance of an El Nino in late 2014.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/20/subtle-signs-emerging-of-a-super-el-nino/

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

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    Bob Bingham 

    Occasional blog posts on topical news items concerning the climate.  Please click the RSS feed to receive updates.

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