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Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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Hansens report on climate change.

26/3/2016

4 Comments

 
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Hansen’s report on climate change has been getting a lot of publicity so I thought a ‘Bob Bingham’ summary might help explain the overall picture.
​Hansen comments that we have been burning fossil fuels and producing CO2 without any idea of the consequences to our planet. The report compares the Eemian period, which was the previous warm period, 125,000 years ago, when the temperature was only 0.5 C warmer than today, and sea levels were 2m to 7m higher.

The level of CO2 at that time was 300 ppm compared with 400 ppm today but the temperatures were similar.

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​His report centres on the ‘Great ocean conveyor, or thermohayline circulation which flows round the world and distributes heat around the planet.
With CO2 in the atmosphere at 400 ppm, heat from the sun is warming the planet and most heat goes into the oceans. This heat in the oceans melts the grounded ice shelves from below and increases the release of fresh water.
This fresh water interferes with the sinking of the salt laden sea water at the poles and slows the thermohayline circulation and consequently slows the distribution of heat around the planet.
As the ice shelves break up there is an increase in the speed at which the big ice sheets move towards the sea and consequently they are melted by the warmer ocean water.

The physical action of ice melting uses heat and keeps the poles cooler.
The result is that the Poles remaining cold and the tropics becoming warmer makes an energy imbalance in the planet which can drive much more powerful storms. Typical instances would be along the course of the Gulf stream, across the Pacific Ocean and round the Southern Ocean. 
Read the report
Hansen is warning about sudden pulses of sea level rise of several metres, which has happened before, but for the people here today a sudden increase of one metre would be catastrophic to the economies of the rich nations. London for instance is currently protected to one metre and could withstand two metres given enough time but after that it is flooded and this would be true for the USA East coast, South West coast and California, China and Holland.
4 Comments
Bob Bristow
31/3/2016 10:30:56 pm

Thanks for the "Bob Bingham" summary on the paper that is coming from James Hansen et al. it should be taken very seriously.

As you mentioned in the last forum postings Dr Jan Wright is (thankfully) not letting the issue go by and it is getting discussed and aired.

Some (in our government) still seem doubtful about the growing scientific reasons to be worried (if not alarmed), but I see that John Key and Paula Bennett seem to be moving on to accepting it. As a nation we must take urgent action and be prepared for the future changes that are well projected now. That means finance and planning among other things, we have the experience of disasters behind us with Christchurch, and must learn and move forward.

It's kind of like a slowly unfolding red-zone in Christchurch."

The cost of sea-level rise of 50cm would be affect a similar number of houses in Christchurch's evacuated red-zone within the next couple of decades, she said.

Climate Change Minister Paula Bennett said every time you learn a bit more about the science "it is a little more frightening".

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/78407260/houses-will-be-redzoned-due-to-climate-change--environment-commissioner


The commissioner, Dr Jan Wright, believes the country is facing about 30cm of sea level rise over the next few decades. On top of that, storm surges are likely, making buildings that lie within 50cm of high tide vulnerable.

There are 13,000 buildings in New Zealand that fit that criteria, including 8800 homes. The replacement cost of all of the buildings is estimated to be $3 billion, and that doesn't include the cost for infrastructure, such as roads.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/300368/rising-sea-levels-could-result-in-negative-equity

Reply
Bob Bristow
31/3/2016 10:39:12 pm

And yet more concerning science from Penn state and University of Massachusetts, Amherst (published in Nature) and summary released this morning. . . it's likely to be worse than projected.

"The startling findings paint a far grimmer picture than current consensus predictions, which have suggested that seas could rise by just under a meter at most by the year 2100. Those estimates relied on the notion that expanding ocean waters and the melting of relatively small glaciers would fuel the majority of sea level rise, rather than the massive ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/antarctic-loss-could-double-expected-sea-level-rise-by-2100-scientists-say/



Reply
Bob Bingham
1/4/2016 03:27:21 pm

Hello Bob. One of the problems is that there are many scientists working in their seperate areas and if one says that Antarctica is going to contribute one metre this century there is no mention that the Greenland researcher is also saying one metre aor Alaska or the Himalayas. Thats why I like Hansen because he looks at the big picture and rolls it all into one. His contribution about the mega storms is a new one to me and is very worrying, especially for my friends in the UK.

Reply
David Smith
25/5/2016 09:21:33 am

Hansen's ABC scenarios were way off.
His "West Side Highway underwater" prediction was rubbish.
Hansen's not really a man you should bother listening to, if you want to take my advice.

Reply



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    Bob Bingham 

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