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Bob Bingham Blog page.

A series of opinion pieces on, mostly climate change and related subjects to do with New Zealand.

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How safe is +2C?

7/11/2015

6 Comments

 
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With the UN COP21 Paris meeting approaching and countries lagging in their commitments to reduce CO2 emissions we have to ask, how safe is a 2C temperature rise? Its not humans who are affected as we are very tough and resilient to wide temperature ranges, its the environment on which we depend that matters.
We are already committed to certain outcomes, such as the 1.5C to 1.75C temperature increase, that will come from the 400 ppm of CO2 we have already put into the atmosphere.

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As the planet warms the ice melts and we should have between 12 and 20 metres of sea level rise over a period of centuries if the planet repeats its original action.

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Ocean acidity is rising as the CO2 is absorbed into the oceans and we know that plankton and coral reefs find it difficult to survive in an acidic ocean but quite how bad it will be is poorly understood.
Marine life is much more sensitive to temperature changes than land creatures and many fish are already on the move to regions that suit them better.

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Trees are also very sensitive to temperature and rainfall as they are not mobile have developed over millions of years to a certain set of conditions and are not tolerant to even small changes.

​Even if humans can survive the higher temperatures, it will be a bleak world without the trees we know and love and the oceans that provide us with sustenance
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6 Comments
Kevin Hester
7/11/2015 09:25:55 pm

2C would have been brutal but with the numerous feedback loops kicking in I believe we will punch right through the IPCC 'worst case scenario of 6C and possibly as high as 10 C when Full Earth System Sensitivity is considered. Check out this great doco Bob.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/kevin-hester/full-earth-system-sensitivity-to-co2/10206693683713426

Reply
Bob Bingham
9/11/2015 10:00:08 am

When you put all the climate threats together and add in 10/11 billion people and difficulties with farming the future is not looking good. I try and stick to the science and inform people where we are headed but its a pretty depressing subject. Bob.

Reply
Bob Bristow
10/11/2015 10:26:34 am

Hi Bob,
I know that following climate science developments can be very depressing, and for that reason I guess that is why many people like to ignore the problem. I appreciate your blog and information, and I'm sure you must make many sacrifices to keep us informed.

Yes the human race is pretty tough and adaptable, but oinly up to a point. Mass migrations and technology may enable us to survive in the tropics, but I wouldn't count on it. It's looking grim for the area I used to live and work in, especially for manual labourers.

"Persian Gulf temperatures may be at the edge of human tolerance in 30 years"

"Problems could arise much sooner than predicted."


http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/persian-gulf-temperatures-may-be-at-the-edge-of-human-tolerance-in-30-years/

Reply
Bob Bristow
10/11/2015 10:33:32 am

I'd like to share a new research item in an area I am particularly interested in - the difference between the North and South hemispheres (bipolar sea saw). Again this confirms that we are sheltered from the worst abrupt changes in maritime New Zealand, although it will most likely even out over a few centuries.


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-11/uoc--tps110915.php

Reply
Bob Bristow
10/11/2015 10:36:22 am

Latest on sea level rise, from Climate Central and N.Z herald, hope the mayor is taking note . . . .

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=11542584

Reply
Bob Bingham
12/11/2015 01:01:06 pm

That was a good post in the NZ Herald. I knew Jan Wright was doing a report but did not know that it was next week so thanks for that.

Reply



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    Bob Bingham 

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